China's 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.0–5.0% range as multiple institutions, including the IMF and Reuters polls, project full-year expansion near 4.5–4.7%, aligning with Beijing's official target. Quarterly data show moderation from 5% in Q1 to around 4.3–4.5% in Q2 amid softening domestic demand and property weakness, yet resilient exports—particularly high-tech and AI-related goods—have offset these drags. Analysts note calibrated fiscal support and stable monetary policy as buffers, with limited scope for aggressive easing. This combination of export strength and contained downside risks has anchored trader pricing on the narrow band, while lower or higher outcomes reflect limited probability of major acceleration or contraction before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,0–5,0% 90%
5,0–6,0% 6.3%
9,0%+ 1.4%
3,0–4,0% 1.2%
$897,506 Объем
$897,506 Объем
30 янв. 2027 г.
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
90%
5,0–6,0%
6%
6,0–7,0%
<1%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
1%
4,0–5,0% 90%
5,0–6,0% 6.3%
9,0%+ 1.4%
3,0–4,0% 1.2%
$897,506 Объем
$897,506 Объем
30 янв. 2027 г.
<1,0%
$67,675 Объем
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$75,259 Объем
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$45,793 Объем
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$81,404 Объем
1%
4,0–5,0%
$222,267 Объем
90%
5,0–6,0%
$80,831 Объем
6%
6,0–7,0%
$87,941 Объем
<1%
7,0–8,0%
$65,353 Объем
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$54,234 Объем
1%
9,0%+
$116,748 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.0–5.0% range as multiple institutions, including the IMF and Reuters polls, project full-year expansion near 4.5–4.7%, aligning with Beijing's official target. Quarterly data show moderation from 5% in Q1 to around 4.3–4.5% in Q2 amid softening domestic demand and property weakness, yet resilient exports—particularly high-tech and AI-related goods—have offset these drags. Analysts note calibrated fiscal support and stable monetary policy as buffers, with limited scope for aggressive easing. This combination of export strength and contained downside risks has anchored trader pricing on the narrow band, while lower or higher outcomes reflect limited probability of major acceleration or contraction before year-end.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Объем
$897,506Дата окончания
31 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.0–5.0% range as multiple institutions, including the IMF and Reuters polls, project full-year expansion near 4.5–4.7%, aligning with Beijing's official target. Quarterly data show moderation from 5% in Q1 to around 4.3–4.5% in Q2 amid softening domestic demand and property weakness, yet resilient exports—particularly high-tech and AI-related goods—have offset these drags. Analysts note calibrated fiscal support and stable monetary policy as buffers, with limited scope for aggressive easing. This combination of export strength and contained downside risks has anchored trader pricing on the narrow band, while lower or higher outcomes reflect limited probability of major acceleration or contraction before year-end.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$897,506Дата окончания
31 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...China's 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.0–5.0% range as multiple institutions, including the IMF and Reuters polls, project full-year expansion near 4.5–4.7%, aligning with Beijing's official target. Quarterly data show moderation from 5% in Q1 to around 4.3–4.5% in Q2 amid softening domestic demand and property weakness, yet resilient exports—particularly high-tech and AI-related goods—have offset these drags. Analysts note calibrated fiscal support and stable monetary policy as buffers, with limited scope for aggressive easing. This combination of export strength and contained downside risks has anchored trader pricing on the narrow band, while lower or higher outcomes reflect limited probability of major acceleration or contraction before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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