China’s economy is tracking toward the government’s 4.5–5.0% target for 2026, with first-half growth at 4.7% despite a Q2 slowdown to 4.3% from 5.0% in Q1. Resilient exports of high-tech goods, AI-related equipment, and manufactured products have offset weak domestic demand, sluggish consumption, and property-sector drag. Policymakers have prioritized incremental fiscal support and measures to boost household spending while maintaining a calibrated policy stance. Consensus forecasts from major institutions and recent data releases cluster in the 4.5–4.7% range, reflecting structural headwinds balanced by external demand strength and targeted stimulus. This positioning underpins the dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome in trader assessments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,0–5,0% 90%
5,0–6,0% 6.3%
9,0%+ 1.4%
8,0–9,0% 1.4%
$897,539 Объем
$897,539 Объем
30 янв. 2027 г.
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
90%
5,0–6,0%
6%
6,0–7,0%
<1%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
1%
4,0–5,0% 90%
5,0–6,0% 6.3%
9,0%+ 1.4%
8,0–9,0% 1.4%
$897,539 Объем
$897,539 Объем
30 янв. 2027 г.
<1,0%
$67,675 Объем
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$75,259 Объем
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$45,793 Объем
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$81,404 Объем
1%
4,0–5,0%
$222,301 Объем
90%
5,0–6,0%
$80,831 Объем
6%
6,0–7,0%
$87,941 Объем
<1%
7,0–8,0%
$65,353 Объем
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$54,234 Объем
1%
9,0%+
$116,748 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s economy is tracking toward the government’s 4.5–5.0% target for 2026, with first-half growth at 4.7% despite a Q2 slowdown to 4.3% from 5.0% in Q1. Resilient exports of high-tech goods, AI-related equipment, and manufactured products have offset weak domestic demand, sluggish consumption, and property-sector drag. Policymakers have prioritized incremental fiscal support and measures to boost household spending while maintaining a calibrated policy stance. Consensus forecasts from major institutions and recent data releases cluster in the 4.5–4.7% range, reflecting structural headwinds balanced by external demand strength and targeted stimulus. This positioning underpins the dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome in trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Объем
$897,539Дата окончания
31 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s economy is tracking toward the government’s 4.5–5.0% target for 2026, with first-half growth at 4.7% despite a Q2 slowdown to 4.3% from 5.0% in Q1. Resilient exports of high-tech goods, AI-related equipment, and manufactured products have offset weak domestic demand, sluggish consumption, and property-sector drag. Policymakers have prioritized incremental fiscal support and measures to boost household spending while maintaining a calibrated policy stance. Consensus forecasts from major institutions and recent data releases cluster in the 4.5–4.7% range, reflecting structural headwinds balanced by external demand strength and targeted stimulus. This positioning underpins the dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome in trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$897,539Дата окончания
31 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...China’s economy is tracking toward the government’s 4.5–5.0% target for 2026, with first-half growth at 4.7% despite a Q2 slowdown to 4.3% from 5.0% in Q1. Resilient exports of high-tech goods, AI-related equipment, and manufactured products have offset weak domestic demand, sluggish consumption, and property-sector drag. Policymakers have prioritized incremental fiscal support and measures to boost household spending while maintaining a calibrated policy stance. Consensus forecasts from major institutions and recent data releases cluster in the 4.5–4.7% range, reflecting structural headwinds balanced by external demand strength and targeted stimulus. This positioning underpins the dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome in trader assessments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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