The September 14, 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election follows the resignation of the prior UCP MLA, with nominations closing August 27. UCP candidate Mike Derry secured his party's nomination in June after defeating a sitting city councillor, drawing on the riding's 2023 result where the UCP captured 56 percent. This incumbency advantage and party organizational support underpin trader consensus favoring Derry at the highest probability. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell and smaller-party entrants including Liberal John Roggeveen and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph trail, reflecting limited recent polling shifts or campaign momentum that would alter the baseline partisan lean. Scheduled advance voting and the short campaign window leave room for turnout variations or late developments to influence final margins.