Recent polling from mid-September places Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s in first-round simulations against President Lula, with Lula holding a narrow lead near 36-40% amid a fragmented field that includes Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. Trader positioning favoring a 39%+ outcome for Flávio reflects expectations of further right-wing consolidation through "voto útil" transfers from those secondary candidates ahead of the October 4 first round. Flávio has narrowed gaps in recent surveys, particularly among women and in the Southeast, while inheriting most of his father’s former support base. A Supreme Court-related controversy has kept the contest polarized, though Lula retains structural advantages in the Northeast. The narrow spread between 36-39% and 39%+ bins underscores the tight, momentum-driven nature of the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено39%+ 56%
36-39% 13%
30-33% 8%
<30% 3.5%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 окт. 2026 г.
<30%
4%
30-33%
8%
33-36%
10%
36-39%
15%
39%+
56%
39%+ 56%
36-39% 13%
30-33% 8%
<30% 3.5%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 окт. 2026 г.
<30%
$166 Объем
4%
30-33%
$317 Объем
8%
33-36%
$276 Объем
10%
36-39%
$344 Объем
15%
39%+
$561 Объем
56%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September places Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s in first-round simulations against President Lula, with Lula holding a narrow lead near 36-40% amid a fragmented field that includes Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. Trader positioning favoring a 39%+ outcome for Flávio reflects expectations of further right-wing consolidation through "voto útil" transfers from those secondary candidates ahead of the October 4 first round. Flávio has narrowed gaps in recent surveys, particularly among women and in the Southeast, while inheriting most of his father’s former support base. A Supreme Court-related controversy has kept the contest polarized, though Lula retains structural advantages in the Northeast. The narrow spread between 36-39% and 39%+ bins underscores the tight, momentum-driven nature of the final weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Объем
$1,665Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September places Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s in first-round simulations against President Lula, with Lula holding a narrow lead near 36-40% amid a fragmented field that includes Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. Trader positioning favoring a 39%+ outcome for Flávio reflects expectations of further right-wing consolidation through "voto útil" transfers from those secondary candidates ahead of the October 4 first round. Flávio has narrowed gaps in recent surveys, particularly among women and in the Southeast, while inheriting most of his father’s former support base. A Supreme Court-related controversy has kept the contest polarized, though Lula retains structural advantages in the Northeast. The narrow spread between 36-39% and 39%+ bins underscores the tight, momentum-driven nature of the final weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$1,665Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-September places Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s in first-round simulations against President Lula, with Lula holding a narrow lead near 36-40% amid a fragmented field that includes Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. Trader positioning favoring a 39%+ outcome for Flávio reflects expectations of further right-wing consolidation through "voto útil" transfers from those secondary candidates ahead of the October 4 first round. Flávio has narrowed gaps in recent surveys, particularly among women and in the Southeast, while inheriting most of his father’s former support base. A Supreme Court-related controversy has kept the contest polarized, though Lula retains structural advantages in the Northeast. The narrow spread between 36-39% and 39%+ bins underscores the tight, momentum-driven nature of the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Наберёт ли Лула 44% или больше действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии в 2026 году?
44%
Да
Получит ли Ренан Сантос от 4% до 6% действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии в 2026 году?
33%
Да
Наберёт ли Аугусто Кури от 4% до 6% действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?
47%
Да
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