**AfD is positioned to finish first in seat counts in two of the three German state elections scheduled for September 2026, consistent with the market's emphasis on that outcome.** Saxony-Anhalt votes today, where AfD has led polls at roughly 40-41% for months against the CDU's 23%, placing it on track for the most seats and potentially an outright majority if smaller parties fall below the 5% threshold. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern follows on September 20, with AfD polling in the mid-30s ahead of the SPD, again favoring it for the largest bloc. In Berlin the same day, recent surveys show the CDU, Linke, or Greens clustered near the top around 18-22%, with AfD trailing near 18% and unlikely to lead. Trader consensus on two victories aligns with AfD's sustained eastern strength amid federal dissatisfaction, while Berlin's more fragmented field and lower AfD support cap the upside at two. The slim probability on three reflects the risk that late shifts or turnout could alter the Berlin result, though no major new catalysts have emerged in the past week to change that assessment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено2 74%
1 15.3%
3 10.7%
0 <1%
$110,536 Объем
$110,536 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
<1%
1
15%
2
74%
3
11%
2 74%
1 15.3%
3 10.7%
0 <1%
$110,536 Объем
$110,536 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
$13,995 Объем
<1%
1
$22,474 Объем
15%
2
$46,787 Объем
74%
3
$27,281 Объем
11%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. **AfD is positioned to finish first in seat counts in two of the three German state elections scheduled for September 2026, consistent with the market's emphasis on that outcome.**
Saxony-Anhalt votes today, where AfD has led polls at roughly 40-41% for months against the CDU's 23%, placing it on track for the most seats and potentially an outright majority if smaller parties fall below the 5% threshold. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern follows on September 20, with AfD polling in the mid-30s ahead of the SPD, again favoring it for the largest bloc. In Berlin the same day, recent surveys show the CDU, Linke, or Greens clustered near the top around 18-22%, with AfD trailing near 18% and unlikely to lead.
Trader consensus on two victories aligns with AfD's sustained eastern strength amid federal dissatisfaction, while Berlin's more fragmented field and lower AfD support cap the upside at two. The slim probability on three reflects the risk that late shifts or turnout could alter the Berlin result, though no major new catalysts have emerged in the past week to change that assessment.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Открытие рынка: Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Объем
$110,536Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. **AfD is positioned to finish first in seat counts in two of the three German state elections scheduled for September 2026, consistent with the market's emphasis on that outcome.**
Saxony-Anhalt votes today, where AfD has led polls at roughly 40-41% for months against the CDU's 23%, placing it on track for the most seats and potentially an outright majority if smaller parties fall below the 5% threshold. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern follows on September 20, with AfD polling in the mid-30s ahead of the SPD, again favoring it for the largest bloc. In Berlin the same day, recent surveys show the CDU, Linke, or Greens clustered near the top around 18-22%, with AfD trailing near 18% and unlikely to lead.
Trader consensus on two victories aligns with AfD's sustained eastern strength amid federal dissatisfaction, while Berlin's more fragmented field and lower AfD support cap the upside at two. The slim probability on three reflects the risk that late shifts or turnout could alter the Berlin result, though no major new catalysts have emerged in the past week to change that assessment.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Объем
$110,536Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**AfD is positioned to finish first in seat counts in two of the three German state elections scheduled for September 2026, consistent with the market's emphasis on that outcome.** Saxony-Anhalt votes today, where AfD has led polls at roughly 40-41% for months against the CDU's 23%, placing it on track for the most seats and potentially an outright majority if smaller parties fall below the 5% threshold. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern follows on September 20, with AfD polling in the mid-30s ahead of the SPD, again favoring it for the largest bloc. In Berlin the same day, recent surveys show the CDU, Linke, or Greens clustered near the top around 18-22%, with AfD trailing near 18% and unlikely to lead. Trader consensus on two victories aligns with AfD's sustained eastern strength amid federal dissatisfaction, while Berlin's more fragmented field and lower AfD support cap the upside at two. The slim probability on three reflects the risk that late shifts or turnout could alter the Berlin result, though no major new catalysts have emerged in the past week to change that assessment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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