Strong positive growth momentum underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP. Official data show real GDP expanding at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, with full-year forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private analysts clustered between 2.0% and 2.4%. Resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven capital investment, and productivity gains have offset headwinds from elevated energy prices, tariff effects, and slower employment growth while keeping the unemployment rate near 4.3%. Traders assign low odds to contraction given these fundamentals and the absence of recession signals in leading indicators. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include a sharp reversal in AI valuations triggering investment cuts or a significant escalation in Middle East energy disruptions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
2% chance
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
28 jan 2027
Sim
2% chance
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
28 jan 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong positive growth momentum underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP. Official data show real GDP expanding at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, with full-year forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private analysts clustered between 2.0% and 2.4%. Resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven capital investment, and productivity gains have offset headwinds from elevated energy prices, tariff effects, and slower employment growth while keeping the unemployment rate near 4.3%. Traders assign low odds to contraction given these fundamentals and the absence of recession signals in leading indicators. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include a sharp reversal in AI valuations triggering investment cuts or a significant escalation in Middle East energy disruptions.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$33,280Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong positive growth momentum underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP. Official data show real GDP expanding at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, with full-year forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private analysts clustered between 2.0% and 2.4%. Resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven capital investment, and productivity gains have offset headwinds from elevated energy prices, tariff effects, and slower employment growth while keeping the unemployment rate near 4.3%. Traders assign low odds to contraction given these fundamentals and the absence of recession signals in leading indicators. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include a sharp reversal in AI valuations triggering investment cuts or a significant escalation in Middle East energy disruptions.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$33,280Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong positive growth momentum underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP. Official data show real GDP expanding at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, with full-year forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private analysts clustered between 2.0% and 2.4%. Resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven capital investment, and productivity gains have offset headwinds from elevated energy prices, tariff effects, and slower employment growth while keeping the unemployment rate near 4.3%. Traders assign low odds to contraction given these fundamentals and the absence of recession signals in leading indicators. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include a sharp reversal in AI valuations triggering investment cuts or a significant escalation in Middle East energy disruptions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions