Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since his March 2026 appointment following his father's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, has maintained a pattern of no verified live public appearances, relying instead on written statements and still images for communications. Persistent security threats tied to the ongoing regional conflict, combined with reports of injuries sustained in the February attacks, have driven trader focus on whether these constraints will ease enough for an in-person event by the market's deadline. July 2026 funeral and memorial ceremonies for Ali Khamenei proceeded without Mojtaba's attendance, reinforcing questions about his health status and the regime's risk calculations. Any scheduled official gatherings, diplomatic meetings, or state broadcasts in the coming weeks could shift probabilities, as could further statements from Iranian officials clarifying his role or condition. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty around these security and succession dynamics rather than firm timelines.