Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range, near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date. This baseline, combined with the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied odds favoring 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Traders appear to price in model spread and potential for enhanced cooling under calm conditions, while higher bins reflect the lower probability of warmer advection. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date represent key variables that could shift these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Madrid a 12 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Madrid a 12 de setembro?
11°C ou menos 97%
21°C ou mais 85%
13°C 40%
12°C 39%
NOVO
NOVO
12 set 2026
11°C ou menos
97%
12°C
39%
13°C
40%
14°C
27%
15°C
21%
16°C
21%
17°C
39%
18°C
38%
19°C
38%
20°C
38%
21°C ou mais
85%
11°C ou menos 97%
21°C ou mais 85%
13°C 40%
12°C 39%
NOVO
NOVO
12 set 2026
11°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
97%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
38%
19°C
$0 Vol.
38%
20°C
$0 Vol.
38%
21°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range, near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date. This baseline, combined with the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied odds favoring 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Traders appear to price in model spread and potential for enhanced cooling under calm conditions, while higher bins reflect the lower probability of warmer advection. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date represent key variables that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
12 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range, near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date. This baseline, combined with the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied odds favoring 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Traders appear to price in model spread and potential for enhanced cooling under calm conditions, while higher bins reflect the lower probability of warmer advection. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date represent key variables that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Data de Término
12 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range, near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date. This baseline, combined with the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied odds favoring 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Traders appear to price in model spread and potential for enhanced cooling under calm conditions, while higher bins reflect the lower probability of warmer advection. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date represent key variables that could shift these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions