Recent polling averages ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election place United Torah Judaism, the main Ashkenazi Haredi party, at 7-8 seats out of 120. This range corresponds to roughly 6-7% of the national vote and underpins the market's leading 6-7% outcome at 48.5% implied probability. Support remains anchored in the party's core ultra-Orthodox electorate, with little movement following final party-list submissions on September 9. Fragmented competition among other religious and right-wing lists, combined with steady turnout expectations in Haredi communities, has kept projections stable across multiple surveys. A narrower 5-6% band holds secondary weight at 33%, reflecting minor downside variance if new Haredi entrants or turnout shifts materialize before election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado6-7% 48%
5-6% 33%
7-8% 11%
<5% 8%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
<5%
8%
5-6%
33%
6-7%
48%
7-8%
11%
8%+
4%
6-7% 48%
5-6% 33%
7-8% 11%
<5% 8%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
<5%
$185 Vol.
8%
5-6%
$134 Vol.
33%
6-7%
$113 Vol.
48%
7-8%
$94 Vol.
11%
8%+
$285 Vol.
4%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election place United Torah Judaism, the main Ashkenazi Haredi party, at 7-8 seats out of 120. This range corresponds to roughly 6-7% of the national vote and underpins the market's leading 6-7% outcome at 48.5% implied probability. Support remains anchored in the party's core ultra-Orthodox electorate, with little movement following final party-list submissions on September 9. Fragmented competition among other religious and right-wing lists, combined with steady turnout expectations in Haredi communities, has kept projections stable across multiple surveys. A narrower 5-6% band holds secondary weight at 33%, reflecting minor downside variance if new Haredi entrants or turnout shifts materialize before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Mercado Aberto: Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$811Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election place United Torah Judaism, the main Ashkenazi Haredi party, at 7-8 seats out of 120. This range corresponds to roughly 6-7% of the national vote and underpins the market's leading 6-7% outcome at 48.5% implied probability. Support remains anchored in the party's core ultra-Orthodox electorate, with little movement following final party-list submissions on September 9. Fragmented competition among other religious and right-wing lists, combined with steady turnout expectations in Haredi communities, has kept projections stable across multiple surveys. A narrower 5-6% band holds secondary weight at 33%, reflecting minor downside variance if new Haredi entrants or turnout shifts materialize before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$811Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election place United Torah Judaism, the main Ashkenazi Haredi party, at 7-8 seats out of 120. This range corresponds to roughly 6-7% of the national vote and underpins the market's leading 6-7% outcome at 48.5% implied probability. Support remains anchored in the party's core ultra-Orthodox electorate, with little movement following final party-list submissions on September 9. Fragmented competition among other religious and right-wing lists, combined with steady turnout expectations in Haredi communities, has kept projections stable across multiple surveys. A narrower 5-6% band holds secondary weight at 33%, reflecting minor downside variance if new Haredi entrants or turnout shifts materialize before election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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