As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and congressional tracking reports list approximately 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin. This total includes both full retirements from public office and moves to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, driven by a wave of announcements from longer-serving members following the 2024 cycle. Recent developments include high-profile exits such as Nancy Pelosi’s decision and several Illinois and New York departures, while additional filings remain possible ahead of state deadlines. Trader consensus around the current range reflects the established count, the limited remaining time for new announcements, and historical patterns of modest late-cycle shifts in open-seat decisions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado20–23 48.0%
24–27 34%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 12.1%
$45,049 Vol.
$45,049 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<20
<1%
20–23
48%
24–27
34%
28–31
10%
32–35
7%
36–39
<1%
40 ou mais
7%
20–23 48.0%
24–27 34%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 12.1%
$45,049 Vol.
$45,049 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<20
$17,822 Vol.
<1%
20–23
$9,852 Vol.
48%
24–27
$7,874 Vol.
34%
28–31
$1,930 Vol.
10%
32–35
$4,533 Vol.
7%
36–39
$1,355 Vol.
<1%
40 ou mais
$1,683 Vol.
7%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and congressional tracking reports list approximately 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin. This total includes both full retirements from public office and moves to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, driven by a wave of announcements from longer-serving members following the 2024 cycle. Recent developments include high-profile exits such as Nancy Pelosi’s decision and several Illinois and New York departures, while additional filings remain possible ahead of state deadlines. Trader consensus around the current range reflects the established count, the limited remaining time for new announcements, and historical patterns of modest late-cycle shifts in open-seat decisions.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$45,049Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and congressional tracking reports list approximately 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin. This total includes both full retirements from public office and moves to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, driven by a wave of announcements from longer-serving members following the 2024 cycle. Recent developments include high-profile exits such as Nancy Pelosi’s decision and several Illinois and New York departures, while additional filings remain possible ahead of state deadlines. Trader consensus around the current range reflects the established count, the limited remaining time for new announcements, and historical patterns of modest late-cycle shifts in open-seat decisions.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$45,049Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and congressional tracking reports list approximately 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin. This total includes both full retirements from public office and moves to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, driven by a wave of announcements from longer-serving members following the 2024 cycle. Recent developments include high-profile exits such as Nancy Pelosi’s decision and several Illinois and New York departures, while additional filings remain possible ahead of state deadlines. Trader consensus around the current range reflects the established count, the limited remaining time for new announcements, and historical patterns of modest late-cycle shifts in open-seat decisions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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Sim
O número de membros republicanos do Senado que se aposentam em 2026 será exatamente 7?
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