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icon for Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?
Finanças·Jerome Powell

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

icon for Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?
Finanças·Jerome Powell

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

alto

baixo

dez 31

alto

baixo

dez 31

$312,197 Vol.

30 dez 2026
Polymarket

$312,197 Vol.

Polymarket

4,8%

$67,390 Vol.

94%

5,0%

$89,684 Vol.

49%

5,2%

$31,958 Vol.

27%

5,5%

$8,642 Vol.

5%

5,7%

$4,310 Vol.

4%

6,0%

$3,927 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.78% in early September 2026 amid persistent inflation pressures, with May PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4%, driven by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions. The Fed has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026, though July dissents and market pricing now embed a higher chance of a September hike. Heavy Treasury issuance, fiscal deficits, and a stable but resilient labor market with 4.2% unemployment have lifted term premia and real yields. Traders will watch September FOMC decisions, upcoming CPI and employment data, and any escalation in geopolitical or fiscal risks for signals on whether yields test higher levels before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$312,197
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.78% in early September 2026 amid persistent inflation pressures, with May PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4%, driven by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions. The Fed has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026, though July dissents and market pricing now embed a higher chance of a September hike. Heavy Treasury issuance, fiscal deficits, and a stable but resilient labor market with 4.2% unemployment have lifted term premia and real yields. Traders will watch September FOMC decisions, upcoming CPI and employment data, and any escalation in geopolitical or fiscal risks for signals on whether yields test higher levels before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$312,197
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4,3%" at 100%, followed by "4,4%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" has generated $312.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" is "4,3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4,4%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.