Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a warm southerly flow and potential heatwave onset over central Europe around August 16, 2026, driving Warsaw's expected daily maximum into the 29–34 °C range. Model spread arises from differences in the timing of warm-air advection, cloud cover from an approaching front, and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs favoring peaks near 30 °C while others allow brief excursions above 33 °C under clearer skies. Historical August climatology (average high ~24 °C) underscores the anomaly, yet resolution hinges on updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology. Trader consensus clusters around 29–30 °C, reflecting this forecast uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Varsóvia em 16 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Varsóvia em 16 de agosto?
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 22%
27°C 11%
NOVO
NOVO
16 ago 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
11%
28°C
21%
29°C
33%
30°C
22%
31°C
11%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
3%
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 22%
27°C 11%
NOVO
NOVO
16 ago 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$81 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
11%
28°C
$3 Vol.
21%
29°C
$73 Vol.
33%
30°C
$32 Vol.
22%
31°C
$12 Vol.
11%
32°C
$0 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$10 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a warm southerly flow and potential heatwave onset over central Europe around August 16, 2026, driving Warsaw's expected daily maximum into the 29–34 °C range. Model spread arises from differences in the timing of warm-air advection, cloud cover from an approaching front, and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs favoring peaks near 30 °C while others allow brief excursions above 33 °C under clearer skies. Historical August climatology (average high ~24 °C) underscores the anomaly, yet resolution hinges on updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology. Trader consensus clusters around 29–30 °C, reflecting this forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$227Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a warm southerly flow and potential heatwave onset over central Europe around August 16, 2026, driving Warsaw's expected daily maximum into the 29–34 °C range. Model spread arises from differences in the timing of warm-air advection, cloud cover from an approaching front, and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs favoring peaks near 30 °C while others allow brief excursions above 33 °C under clearer skies. Historical August climatology (average high ~24 °C) underscores the anomaly, yet resolution hinges on updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology. Trader consensus clusters around 29–30 °C, reflecting this forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$227Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a warm southerly flow and potential heatwave onset over central Europe around August 16, 2026, driving Warsaw's expected daily maximum into the 29–34 °C range. Model spread arises from differences in the timing of warm-air advection, cloud cover from an approaching front, and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs favoring peaks near 30 °C while others allow brief excursions above 33 °C under clearer skies. Historical August climatology (average high ~24 °C) underscores the anomaly, yet resolution hinges on updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology. Trader consensus clusters around 29–30 °C, reflecting this forecast uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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