**Official forecasts from AEMET and supporting ensemble models position 31°C as the most probable daily maximum for Madrid on August 21, 2026, under mostly clear skies and moderate southwesterly flow.** Recent guidance shows a transition from earlier heat (35–38°C peaks mid-month) to cooler conditions driven by reduced warm advection and increased Atlantic influence, consistent with the typical late-August decline in highs. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly around 29–32°C, with limited upside risk from model variability or delayed cooling. Trader consensus, reflected in the 50.5% implied probability for 31°C, incorporates this meteorological consensus alongside historical August averages near 31–32°C while acknowledging small uncertainty in exact peak timing and local measurement at Retiro station. New AEMET updates and 00/12 UTC model runs expected before resolution remain the key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 21 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 21 de agosto?
31°C 51%
32°C 22%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
NOVO
NOVO
21 ago 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
5%
30°C
16%
31°C
51%
32°C
22%
33°C
5%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 51%
32°C 22%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
NOVO
NOVO
21 ago 2026
27°C or below
$114 Vol.
1%
28°C
$10 Vol.
1%
29°C
$42 Vol.
5%
30°C
$121 Vol.
16%
31°C
$230 Vol.
51%
32°C
$130 Vol.
22%
33°C
$47 Vol.
5%
34°C
$36 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$106 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$117 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from AEMET and supporting ensemble models position 31°C as the most probable daily maximum for Madrid on August 21, 2026, under mostly clear skies and moderate southwesterly flow.** Recent guidance shows a transition from earlier heat (35–38°C peaks mid-month) to cooler conditions driven by reduced warm advection and increased Atlantic influence, consistent with the typical late-August decline in highs. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly around 29–32°C, with limited upside risk from model variability or delayed cooling. Trader consensus, reflected in the 50.5% implied probability for 31°C, incorporates this meteorological consensus alongside historical August averages near 31–32°C while acknowledging small uncertainty in exact peak timing and local measurement at Retiro station. New AEMET updates and 00/12 UTC model runs expected before resolution remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$962Data de Término
21 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from AEMET and supporting ensemble models position 31°C as the most probable daily maximum for Madrid on August 21, 2026, under mostly clear skies and moderate southwesterly flow.** Recent guidance shows a transition from earlier heat (35–38°C peaks mid-month) to cooler conditions driven by reduced warm advection and increased Atlantic influence, consistent with the typical late-August decline in highs. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly around 29–32°C, with limited upside risk from model variability or delayed cooling. Trader consensus, reflected in the 50.5% implied probability for 31°C, incorporates this meteorological consensus alongside historical August averages near 31–32°C while acknowledging small uncertainty in exact peak timing and local measurement at Retiro station. New AEMET updates and 00/12 UTC model runs expected before resolution remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$962Data de Término
21 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from AEMET and supporting ensemble models position 31°C as the most probable daily maximum for Madrid on August 21, 2026, under mostly clear skies and moderate southwesterly flow.** Recent guidance shows a transition from earlier heat (35–38°C peaks mid-month) to cooler conditions driven by reduced warm advection and increased Atlantic influence, consistent with the typical late-August decline in highs. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly around 29–32°C, with limited upside risk from model variability or delayed cooling. Trader consensus, reflected in the 50.5% implied probability for 31°C, incorporates this meteorological consensus alongside historical August averages near 31–32°C while acknowledging small uncertainty in exact peak timing and local measurement at Retiro station. New AEMET updates and 00/12 UTC model runs expected before resolution remain the key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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