Elon Musk’s posting cadence on X typically averages 8–12 original posts per day in 2025–2026, with weekends often lighter due to travel and lower engagement cycles. This historical baseline positions the 40–64 tweet range as the market’s consensus leader for the three-day August 15–17 window, while the 31% probability on sub-40 reflects expectations of a quieter weekend. Recent activity around the Grok 4.6 launch and related AI commentary has kept daily volume elevated mid-week, yet traders appear to discount sustained momentum into the weekend absent major breaking news or product milestones. Higher brackets above 65 remain low-probability longshots, consistent with Musk’s documented patterns and the absence of scheduled catalysts that would drive outlier volume.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado40-64 46%
<40 30%
65-89 19%
90-114 3.1%
NOVO
NOVO
17 ago 2026
<40
30%
40-64
46%
65-89
19%
90-114
3%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
1%
40-64 46%
<40 30%
65-89 19%
90-114 3.1%
NOVO
NOVO
17 ago 2026
<40
$5 Vol.
30%
40-64
$26 Vol.
46%
65-89
$0 Vol.
19%
90-114
$60 Vol.
3%
115-139
$534 Vol.
1%
140-164
$634 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$634 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$105 Vol.
1%
215-239
$105 Vol.
1%
240+
$105 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s posting cadence on X typically averages 8–12 original posts per day in 2025–2026, with weekends often lighter due to travel and lower engagement cycles. This historical baseline positions the 40–64 tweet range as the market’s consensus leader for the three-day August 15–17 window, while the 31% probability on sub-40 reflects expectations of a quieter weekend. Recent activity around the Grok 4.6 launch and related AI commentary has kept daily volume elevated mid-week, yet traders appear to discount sustained momentum into the weekend absent major breaking news or product milestones. Higher brackets above 65 remain low-probability longshots, consistent with Musk’s documented patterns and the absence of scheduled catalysts that would drive outlier volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$2,207Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s posting cadence on X typically averages 8–12 original posts per day in 2025–2026, with weekends often lighter due to travel and lower engagement cycles. This historical baseline positions the 40–64 tweet range as the market’s consensus leader for the three-day August 15–17 window, while the 31% probability on sub-40 reflects expectations of a quieter weekend. Recent activity around the Grok 4.6 launch and related AI commentary has kept daily volume elevated mid-week, yet traders appear to discount sustained momentum into the weekend absent major breaking news or product milestones. Higher brackets above 65 remain low-probability longshots, consistent with Musk’s documented patterns and the absence of scheduled catalysts that would drive outlier volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$2,207Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s posting cadence on X typically averages 8–12 original posts per day in 2025–2026, with weekends often lighter due to travel and lower engagement cycles. This historical baseline positions the 40–64 tweet range as the market’s consensus leader for the three-day August 15–17 window, while the 31% probability on sub-40 reflects expectations of a quieter weekend. Recent activity around the Grok 4.6 launch and related AI commentary has kept daily volume elevated mid-week, yet traders appear to discount sustained momentum into the weekend absent major breaking news or product milestones. Higher brackets above 65 remain low-probability longshots, consistent with Musk’s documented patterns and the absence of scheduled catalysts that would drive outlier volume.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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