Traders see the 64.5% implied probability on "No" for a new Ebola country before October 1 as driven by the current Bundibugyo outbreak's containment within the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the resolved Uganda cluster, with only an isolated imported case in France already accounted for. Strong surveillance, rapid contact tracing, and international aid have limited cross-border jumps since the May 2026 public health emergency declaration, while DRC transmission remains concentrated in known provinces without fresh international spillovers. Historical patterns of slower spread for this strain, combined with no major new announcements in recent weeks, reinforce market sentiment that another country introduction is unlikely before the deadline. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing case reporting from Ituri and neighboring zones, which could shift odds if community transmission accelerates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoÉbola: novo país confirmado antes de 1 de outubro?
Ébola: novo país confirmado antes de 1 de outubro?
Sim
50% chance
NOVO
NOVO
1 out 2026
Sim
50% chance
NOVO
NOVO
1 out 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Traders see the 64.5% implied probability on "No" for a new Ebola country before October 1 as driven by the current Bundibugyo outbreak's containment within the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the resolved Uganda cluster, with only an isolated imported case in France already accounted for. Strong surveillance, rapid contact tracing, and international aid have limited cross-border jumps since the May 2026 public health emergency declaration, while DRC transmission remains concentrated in known provinces without fresh international spillovers. Historical patterns of slower spread for this strain, combined with no major new announcements in recent weeks, reinforce market sentiment that another country introduction is unlikely before the deadline. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing case reporting from Ituri and neighboring zones, which could shift odds if community transmission accelerates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$20Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Traders see the 64.5% implied probability on "No" for a new Ebola country before October 1 as driven by the current Bundibugyo outbreak's containment within the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the resolved Uganda cluster, with only an isolated imported case in France already accounted for. Strong surveillance, rapid contact tracing, and international aid have limited cross-border jumps since the May 2026 public health emergency declaration, while DRC transmission remains concentrated in known provinces without fresh international spillovers. Historical patterns of slower spread for this strain, combined with no major new announcements in recent weeks, reinforce market sentiment that another country introduction is unlikely before the deadline. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing case reporting from Ituri and neighboring zones, which could shift odds if community transmission accelerates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$20Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see the 64.5% implied probability on "No" for a new Ebola country before October 1 as driven by the current Bundibugyo outbreak's containment within the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the resolved Uganda cluster, with only an isolated imported case in France already accounted for. Strong surveillance, rapid contact tracing, and international aid have limited cross-border jumps since the May 2026 public health emergency declaration, while DRC transmission remains concentrated in known provinces without fresh international spillovers. Historical patterns of slower spread for this strain, combined with no major new announcements in recent weeks, reinforce market sentiment that another country introduction is unlikely before the deadline. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing case reporting from Ituri and neighboring zones, which could shift odds if community transmission accelerates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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