Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior PLA officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and associates, have reinforced assessments of centralized control and institutional obedience rather than factional revolt. Analysts note the absence of credible resistance, public dissent, or verifiable mobilization within the military or party elite despite the opacity of Chinese politics. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, traders assign low probability to any organized coup attempt materializing. Structural factors such as loyalty mechanisms, surveillance, and succession controls further limit plausible pathways. Late-breaking developments like an unexpected leadership health crisis or acute economic shock capable of fracturing elite cohesion remain the primary theoretical variables that could alter the current consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
5% chance
$154,289 Vol.
$154,289 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
5% chance
$154,289 Vol.
$154,289 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior PLA officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and associates, have reinforced assessments of centralized control and institutional obedience rather than factional revolt. Analysts note the absence of credible resistance, public dissent, or verifiable mobilization within the military or party elite despite the opacity of Chinese politics. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, traders assign low probability to any organized coup attempt materializing. Structural factors such as loyalty mechanisms, surveillance, and succession controls further limit plausible pathways. Late-breaking developments like an unexpected leadership health crisis or acute economic shock capable of fracturing elite cohesion remain the primary theoretical variables that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$154,289Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior PLA officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and associates, have reinforced assessments of centralized control and institutional obedience rather than factional revolt. Analysts note the absence of credible resistance, public dissent, or verifiable mobilization within the military or party elite despite the opacity of Chinese politics. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, traders assign low probability to any organized coup attempt materializing. Structural factors such as loyalty mechanisms, surveillance, and succession controls further limit plausible pathways. Late-breaking developments like an unexpected leadership health crisis or acute economic shock capable of fracturing elite cohesion remain the primary theoretical variables that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$154,289Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior PLA officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and associates, have reinforced assessments of centralized control and institutional obedience rather than factional revolt. Analysts note the absence of credible resistance, public dissent, or verifiable mobilization within the military or party elite despite the opacity of Chinese politics. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, traders assign low probability to any organized coup attempt materializing. Structural factors such as loyalty mechanisms, surveillance, and succession controls further limit plausible pathways. Late-breaking developments like an unexpected leadership health crisis or acute economic shock capable of fracturing elite cohesion remain the primary theoretical variables that could alter the current consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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