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icon for EUA expulsam diplomata brasileiro até 30 de setembro?
Política·Brasil

EUA expulsam diplomata brasileiro até 30 de setembro?

icon for EUA expulsam diplomata brasileiro até 30 de setembro?
Política·Brasil

EUA expulsam diplomata brasileiro até 30 de setembro?

Sim

7% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

7% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent diplomatic friction between the Trump administration and Brazilian President Lula da Silva centers on reciprocal visa measures and ambassador approvals ahead of Brazil’s October elections. The United States revoked the visa of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti in early August 2026 as a direct response to Brazil’s delays in confirming the US nominee and its prior denial of entry visas to two American diplomats. US officials have repeatedly clarified that this step does not constitute expulsion or a persona non grata declaration, allowing the ambassador to remain in the country for now with the visa potentially restorable upon resolution. An earlier April 2026 expulsion of a Brazilian federal police attaché has not led to broader diplomatic expulsions. With no confirmed plans or escalatory signals pointing to formal expulsion by the September 30 deadline, trader consensus reflects the limited scope of current actions and the absence of acute triggers for further measures within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,679
Data de Término
30 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent diplomatic friction between the Trump administration and Brazilian President Lula da Silva centers on reciprocal visa measures and ambassador approvals ahead of Brazil’s October elections. The United States revoked the visa of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti in early August 2026 as a direct response to Brazil’s delays in confirming the US nominee and its prior denial of entry visas to two American diplomats. US officials have repeatedly clarified that this step does not constitute expulsion or a persona non grata declaration, allowing the ambassador to remain in the country for now with the visa potentially restorable upon resolution. An earlier April 2026 expulsion of a Brazilian federal police attaché has not led to broader diplomatic expulsions. With no confirmed plans or escalatory signals pointing to formal expulsion by the September 30 deadline, trader consensus reflects the limited scope of current actions and the absence of acute triggers for further measures within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,679
Data de Término
30 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"EUA expulsam diplomata brasileiro até 30 de setembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA expulsam um diplomata brasileiro até 30 de setembro?" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"EUA expulsam diplomata brasileiro até 30 de setembro?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "EUA expulsam diplomata brasileiro até 30 de setembro?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "EUA expulsam diplomata brasileiro até 30 de setembro?" is "Os EUA expulsam um diplomata brasileiro até 30 de setembro?" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "EUA expulsam diplomata brasileiro até 30 de setembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.