California voters face Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, alongside two opposing ballot measures funded primarily by billionaires that prohibit retroactive personal property taxes and certain special tax structures. These “poison pill” initiatives include provisions that could nullify the wealth tax if they receive more votes. Governor Gavin Newsom and groups including the California Teachers Association and California Medical Association have opposed the tax over migration risks and revenue volatility, while the sponsoring union secured ballot qualification through signatures exceeding requirements. Early polling showed modest support near 54%, yet the scale of opposition spending and structural countermeasures contribute to trader consensus reflected in the current pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO imposto sobre a riqueza da Califórnia derrota proposições opostas?
O imposto sobre a riqueza da Califórnia derrota proposições opostas?
Sim
34% chance
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Sim
34% chance
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, alongside two opposing ballot measures funded primarily by billionaires that prohibit retroactive personal property taxes and certain special tax structures. These “poison pill” initiatives include provisions that could nullify the wealth tax if they receive more votes. Governor Gavin Newsom and groups including the California Teachers Association and California Medical Association have opposed the tax over migration risks and revenue volatility, while the sponsoring union secured ballot qualification through signatures exceeding requirements. Early polling showed modest support near 54%, yet the scale of opposition spending and structural countermeasures contribute to trader consensus reflected in the current pricing.
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$303Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, alongside two opposing ballot measures funded primarily by billionaires that prohibit retroactive personal property taxes and certain special tax structures. These “poison pill” initiatives include provisions that could nullify the wealth tax if they receive more votes. Governor Gavin Newsom and groups including the California Teachers Association and California Medical Association have opposed the tax over migration risks and revenue volatility, while the sponsoring union secured ballot qualification through signatures exceeding requirements. Early polling showed modest support near 54%, yet the scale of opposition spending and structural countermeasures contribute to trader consensus reflected in the current pricing.
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$303Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...California voters face Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, alongside two opposing ballot measures funded primarily by billionaires that prohibit retroactive personal property taxes and certain special tax structures. These “poison pill” initiatives include provisions that could nullify the wealth tax if they receive more votes. Governor Gavin Newsom and groups including the California Teachers Association and California Medical Association have opposed the tax over migration risks and revenue volatility, while the sponsoring union secured ballot qualification through signatures exceeding requirements. Early polling showed modest support near 54%, yet the scale of opposition spending and structural countermeasures contribute to trader consensus reflected in the current pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions