Traders see a near-deadlock between “Other” at 45% and Claude Opus 5 Max at 42.5% because Anthropic’s late-July Opus 5 release delivered leading results on Frontier-Bench, CursorBench, and OSWorld agent tasks at competitive cost, yet Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol variants still edge it on select reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks. Differentiation hinges on effort settings, context-window utilization, and real-world agent reliability rather than raw intelligence scores. With Anthropic’s next model expected around August 17 and no major OpenAI or Google launches imminent before month-end, the market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether Opus 5 Max solidifies as the frontier leader by August 31 or yields ground to an existing rival on the decisive evaluation suite.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMelhor modelo de IA em 31 de agosto?
Melhor modelo de IA em 31 de agosto?
Outro 44%
claude-opus-5-max 43%
claude-opus-5-high 25%
claude-opus-4-6-high 25%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
Outro
44%
claude-opus-5-max
43%
claude-opus-5-high
25%
claude-opus-4-6-high
25%
Outro 44%
claude-opus-5-max 43%
claude-opus-5-high 25%
claude-opus-4-6-high 25%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
Outro
$0 Vol.
44%
claude-opus-5-max
$0 Vol.
43%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 Vol.
25%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a near-deadlock between “Other” at 45% and Claude Opus 5 Max at 42.5% because Anthropic’s late-July Opus 5 release delivered leading results on Frontier-Bench, CursorBench, and OSWorld agent tasks at competitive cost, yet Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol variants still edge it on select reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks. Differentiation hinges on effort settings, context-window utilization, and real-world agent reliability rather than raw intelligence scores. With Anthropic’s next model expected around August 17 and no major OpenAI or Google launches imminent before month-end, the market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether Opus 5 Max solidifies as the frontier leader by August 31 or yields ground to an existing rival on the decisive evaluation suite.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a near-deadlock between “Other” at 45% and Claude Opus 5 Max at 42.5% because Anthropic’s late-July Opus 5 release delivered leading results on Frontier-Bench, CursorBench, and OSWorld agent tasks at competitive cost, yet Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol variants still edge it on select reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks. Differentiation hinges on effort settings, context-window utilization, and real-world agent reliability rather than raw intelligence scores. With Anthropic’s next model expected around August 17 and no major OpenAI or Google launches imminent before month-end, the market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether Opus 5 Max solidifies as the frontier leader by August 31 or yields ground to an existing rival on the decisive evaluation suite.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a near-deadlock between “Other” at 45% and Claude Opus 5 Max at 42.5% because Anthropic’s late-July Opus 5 release delivered leading results on Frontier-Bench, CursorBench, and OSWorld agent tasks at competitive cost, yet Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol variants still edge it on select reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks. Differentiation hinges on effort settings, context-window utilization, and real-world agent reliability rather than raw intelligence scores. With Anthropic’s next model expected around August 17 and no major OpenAI or Google launches imminent before month-end, the market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether Opus 5 Max solidifies as the frontier leader by August 31 or yields ground to an existing rival on the decisive evaluation suite.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions