Tesla’s limited California presence relies on a basic charter-party carrier permit for supervised rides with human safety drivers in the Bay Area, rather than the multi-tier DMV autonomous vehicle testing, driverless testing, and CPUC paid passenger permits required for true unsupervised robotaxi operations. The company has filed no applications for higher-level approvals, logged negligible autonomous test miles on state roads, and faces a rigorous data-driven review process that competitors like Waymo have spent years completing before expansion. With Cybercab driverless service only recently launching in Texas amid a new NHTSA inquiry, and just four months remaining before the December 31 deadline, trader consensus reflects the steep regulatory timeline and absence of concrete progress toward California deployment. Key near-term catalysts include any surprise DMV filings or FSD capability demonstrations that could alter the outlook.