Recent August 2026 outages—multiple incidents on the 24th and 28th involving login failures, elevated errors across Opus and Sonnet models, and upstream cloud provider disruptions—have kept Claude's infrastructure under scrutiny, pushing trader consensus toward 8-13 downtime days in September. Anthropic's postmortems on routing and load-balancing bugs, combined with rapid scaling for agentic tools like Claude Code and Cowork, highlight ongoing capacity challenges amid strong demand growth. Newer releases such as Sonnet 5 and Opus 5 add competitive pressure against OpenAI and Google models, where reliability serves as a key differentiator, yet unresolved dependencies on hyperscalers create swing risk for fewer or more outage days depending on fix deployment speed and peak usage patterns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Claude go down on __ days in September?
Will Claude go down on __ days in September?
8-10 37%
11-13 33%
5-7 21%
14+ 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
<5
4%
5-7
21%
8-10
37%
11-13
33%
14+
8%
8-10 37%
11-13 33%
5-7 21%
14+ 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
<5
$179 Wol.
4%
5-7
$5 Wol.
21%
8-10
$105 Wol.
37%
11-13
$213 Wol.
33%
14+
$93 Wol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent August 2026 outages—multiple incidents on the 24th and 28th involving login failures, elevated errors across Opus and Sonnet models, and upstream cloud provider disruptions—have kept Claude's infrastructure under scrutiny, pushing trader consensus toward 8-13 downtime days in September. Anthropic's postmortems on routing and load-balancing bugs, combined with rapid scaling for agentic tools like Claude Code and Cowork, highlight ongoing capacity challenges amid strong demand growth. Newer releases such as Sonnet 5 and Opus 5 add competitive pressure against OpenAI and Google models, where reliability serves as a key differentiator, yet unresolved dependencies on hyperscalers create swing risk for fewer or more outage days depending on fix deployment speed and peak usage patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$596Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent August 2026 outages—multiple incidents on the 24th and 28th involving login failures, elevated errors across Opus and Sonnet models, and upstream cloud provider disruptions—have kept Claude's infrastructure under scrutiny, pushing trader consensus toward 8-13 downtime days in September. Anthropic's postmortems on routing and load-balancing bugs, combined with rapid scaling for agentic tools like Claude Code and Cowork, highlight ongoing capacity challenges amid strong demand growth. Newer releases such as Sonnet 5 and Opus 5 add competitive pressure against OpenAI and Google models, where reliability serves as a key differentiator, yet unresolved dependencies on hyperscalers create swing risk for fewer or more outage days depending on fix deployment speed and peak usage patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Wolumen
$596Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 outages—multiple incidents on the 24th and 28th involving login failures, elevated errors across Opus and Sonnet models, and upstream cloud provider disruptions—have kept Claude's infrastructure under scrutiny, pushing trader consensus toward 8-13 downtime days in September. Anthropic's postmortems on routing and load-balancing bugs, combined with rapid scaling for agentic tools like Claude Code and Cowork, highlight ongoing capacity challenges amid strong demand growth. Newer releases such as Sonnet 5 and Opus 5 add competitive pressure against OpenAI and Google models, where reliability serves as a key differentiator, yet unresolved dependencies on hyperscalers create swing risk for fewer or more outage days depending on fix deployment speed and peak usage patterns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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