**The high implied probability against the US-Saudi 123 agreement entering into force in 2026 stems primarily from President Trump’s post-signing condition tying implementation to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, alongside the statutory congressional review process.** The agreement, signed in July 2026 and transmitted to Congress in late August, faces a 90-day review period under the Atomic Energy Act that extends into November, during which lawmakers could pass a resolution of disapproval. Saudi officials have repeatedly linked normalization with Israel to progress on Palestinian statehood, a precondition that remains unmet. Additional barriers include Israeli opposition over proliferation risks, the absence of IAEA Additional Protocol requirements, and the need for further bilateral steps on enrichment viability. These political and procedural hurdles have shaped trader consensus that full entry into force is unlikely before year-end.