Traders see no dominant second-place contender in AI agent development heading into late October 2026, with market-implied odds clustered near 22–25% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and Meta, alongside a 50% chance for Other. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Code agentic coding tools, OpenAI’s ChatGPT Operator and GPT-5.6-based multi-hour workflow systems, and Google’s Gemini 3.1/3.6 updates optimized for tool use and multi-step reasoning have kept capabilities tightly matched on benchmarks like SWE-bench and agent reliability tests. Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot continue closing gaps through cost-efficient open-weight models, while xAI and Mistral push differentiated speed or openness angles. This even distribution reflects rapid iteration cycles, shifting leaderboards, and the absence of a decisive new agent platform launch or benchmark breakthrough in the past month, leaving resolution dependent on any late-October model drops or enterprise adoption metrics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
Google 25%
DeepSeek 25%
Xiaomi 25%
ByteDance 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 31, 2026
25%
DeepSeek
25%
Xiaomi
25%
ByteDance
25%
Meta
24%
Alibaba
24%
SpaceXAI
23%
Moonshot
23%
Microsoft
23%
Anthropic
23%
Z.ai
23%
MiniMax
23%
Nvidia
23%
Amazon
23%
Baidu
20%
Meituan
19%
Mistral
18%
OpenAI
23%
Google 25%
DeepSeek 25%
Xiaomi 25%
ByteDance 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 31, 2026
$39 Wol.
25%
DeepSeek
$59 Wol.
25%
Xiaomi
$44 Wol.
25%
ByteDance
$39 Wol.
25%
Meta
$39 Wol.
24%
Alibaba
$39 Wol.
24%
SpaceXAI
$39 Wol.
23%
Moonshot
$39 Wol.
23%
Microsoft
$39 Wol.
23%
Anthropic
$39 Wol.
23%
Z.ai
$76 Wol.
23%
MiniMax
$125 Wol.
23%
Nvidia
$86 Wol.
23%
Amazon
$87 Wol.
23%
Baidu
$39 Wol.
20%
Meituan
$76 Wol.
19%
Mistral
$76 Wol.
18%
OpenAI
$44 Wol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see no dominant second-place contender in AI agent development heading into late October 2026, with market-implied odds clustered near 22–25% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and Meta, alongside a 50% chance for Other. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Code agentic coding tools, OpenAI’s ChatGPT Operator and GPT-5.6-based multi-hour workflow systems, and Google’s Gemini 3.1/3.6 updates optimized for tool use and multi-step reasoning have kept capabilities tightly matched on benchmarks like SWE-bench and agent reliability tests. Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot continue closing gaps through cost-efficient open-weight models, while xAI and Mistral push differentiated speed or openness angles. This even distribution reflects rapid iteration cycles, shifting leaderboards, and the absence of a decisive new agent platform launch or benchmark breakthrough in the past month, leaving resolution dependent on any late-October model drops or enterprise adoption metrics.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,028Data zakończenia
Oct 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see no dominant second-place contender in AI agent development heading into late October 2026, with market-implied odds clustered near 22–25% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and Meta, alongside a 50% chance for Other. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Code agentic coding tools, OpenAI’s ChatGPT Operator and GPT-5.6-based multi-hour workflow systems, and Google’s Gemini 3.1/3.6 updates optimized for tool use and multi-step reasoning have kept capabilities tightly matched on benchmarks like SWE-bench and agent reliability tests. Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot continue closing gaps through cost-efficient open-weight models, while xAI and Mistral push differentiated speed or openness angles. This even distribution reflects rapid iteration cycles, shifting leaderboards, and the absence of a decisive new agent platform launch or benchmark breakthrough in the past month, leaving resolution dependent on any late-October model drops or enterprise adoption metrics.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$1,028Data zakończenia
Oct 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see no dominant second-place contender in AI agent development heading into late October 2026, with market-implied odds clustered near 22–25% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and Meta, alongside a 50% chance for Other. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Code agentic coding tools, OpenAI’s ChatGPT Operator and GPT-5.6-based multi-hour workflow systems, and Google’s Gemini 3.1/3.6 updates optimized for tool use and multi-step reasoning have kept capabilities tightly matched on benchmarks like SWE-bench and agent reliability tests. Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot continue closing gaps through cost-efficient open-weight models, while xAI and Mistral push differentiated speed or openness angles. This even distribution reflects rapid iteration cycles, shifting leaderboards, and the absence of a decisive new agent platform launch or benchmark breakthrough in the past month, leaving resolution dependent on any late-October model drops or enterprise adoption metrics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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