Traders assign a 70.5% probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the view that major geopolitical escalations, economic shocks, or institutional upheavals will remain contained through year-end. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets and related diplomatic maneuvering have not triggered wider regional conflict or sustained market-moving fallout, while preparations for the November midterm elections show routine partisan positioning without immediate procedural crises or unexpected reversals. Scheduled events such as the G7 summit and various national parliamentary votes add structure without evident tail risks. This pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds assessing that ongoing tensions have so far produced limited second-order effects on global stability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNic się nigdy nie dzieje: 2026
Nic się nigdy nie dzieje: 2026
Tak
$604,946 Wol.
$604,946 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$604,946 Wol.
$604,946 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 70.5% probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the view that major geopolitical escalations, economic shocks, or institutional upheavals will remain contained through year-end. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets and related diplomatic maneuvering have not triggered wider regional conflict or sustained market-moving fallout, while preparations for the November midterm elections show routine partisan positioning without immediate procedural crises or unexpected reversals. Scheduled events such as the G7 summit and various national parliamentary votes add structure without evident tail risks. This pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds assessing that ongoing tensions have so far produced limited second-order effects on global stability.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$604,946Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 70.5% probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the view that major geopolitical escalations, economic shocks, or institutional upheavals will remain contained through year-end. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets and related diplomatic maneuvering have not triggered wider regional conflict or sustained market-moving fallout, while preparations for the November midterm elections show routine partisan positioning without immediate procedural crises or unexpected reversals. Scheduled events such as the G7 summit and various national parliamentary votes add structure without evident tail risks. This pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds assessing that ongoing tensions have so far produced limited second-order effects on global stability.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$604,946Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 70.5% probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the view that major geopolitical escalations, economic shocks, or institutional upheavals will remain contained through year-end. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets and related diplomatic maneuvering have not triggered wider regional conflict or sustained market-moving fallout, while preparations for the November midterm elections show routine partisan positioning without immediate procedural crises or unexpected reversals. Scheduled events such as the G7 summit and various national parliamentary votes add structure without evident tail risks. This pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds assessing that ongoing tensions have so far produced limited second-order effects on global stability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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