**Trader consensus favors 700K-800K total ballots cast in Mississippi’s November 3, 2026, U.S. Senate general election, reflecting the state’s typical midterm participation levels.** Mississippi historically records low voter turnout in non-presidential cycles, with the 2022 midterm at roughly 32.5% of eligible voters and the 2023 gubernatorial contest drawing about 821,000 ballots. Primary data from March 2026 showed combined Republican and Democratic Senate primary votes near 310,000, consistent with subdued midterm interest absent a presidential contest. Democratic nominee Scott Colom’s campaign has highlighted an 80% rise in Democratic primary participation compared with 2024 and is emphasizing get-out-the-vote efforts among Black voters and in key counties, while an independent candidate adds potential vote-splitting dynamics. These factors, alongside Mississippi’s structural barriers to higher participation, position the 700K-800K range as the leading outcome ahead of the general election.