Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, tied for the lowest on record at 14.29 million km² in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, combined with persistently below-average spring and early-summer coverage has left a thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. Early August 2026 extents near 6.2–7 million km², with notable deficits in the Kara, Laptev, and Barents seas, reinforce this setup amid the long-term downward trend of roughly 11–12% per decade since 1979. Model consensus and post-2007 analogs favor a September minimum most likely between 4.2–4.6 million km², aligning with the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million km² bin at 44% implied probability. Ongoing NSIDC daily observations and revised Sea Ice Outlook releases through late August will supply key updates for traders monitoring melt progression and weather patterns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 27.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 16.4%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.9%
<4m sq km 11%
$68,052 Wol.
$68,052 Wol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
11%
4.0-4.2m sq km
5%
4.2-4.4m sq km
16%
4.4-4.6m sq km
44%
4.6-4.8m sq km
16%
4.8-5m sq km
6%
5m+ sq km
2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 27.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 16.4%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.9%
<4m sq km 11%
$68,052 Wol.
$68,052 Wol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,481 Wol.
11%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,592 Wol.
5%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,097 Wol.
16%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,128 Wol.
44%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,805 Wol.
16%
4.8-5m sq km
$3,475 Wol.
6%
5m+ sq km
$14,474 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, tied for the lowest on record at 14.29 million km² in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, combined with persistently below-average spring and early-summer coverage has left a thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. Early August 2026 extents near 6.2–7 million km², with notable deficits in the Kara, Laptev, and Barents seas, reinforce this setup amid the long-term downward trend of roughly 11–12% per decade since 1979. Model consensus and post-2007 analogs favor a September minimum most likely between 4.2–4.6 million km², aligning with the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million km² bin at 44% implied probability. Ongoing NSIDC daily observations and revised Sea Ice Outlook releases through late August will supply key updates for traders monitoring melt progression and weather patterns.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$68,052Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, tied for the lowest on record at 14.29 million km² in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, combined with persistently below-average spring and early-summer coverage has left a thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. Early August 2026 extents near 6.2–7 million km², with notable deficits in the Kara, Laptev, and Barents seas, reinforce this setup amid the long-term downward trend of roughly 11–12% per decade since 1979. Model consensus and post-2007 analogs favor a September minimum most likely between 4.2–4.6 million km², aligning with the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million km² bin at 44% implied probability. Ongoing NSIDC daily observations and revised Sea Ice Outlook releases through late August will supply key updates for traders monitoring melt progression and weather patterns.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Wolumen
$68,052Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, tied for the lowest on record at 14.29 million km² in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, combined with persistently below-average spring and early-summer coverage has left a thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. Early August 2026 extents near 6.2–7 million km², with notable deficits in the Kara, Laptev, and Barents seas, reinforce this setup amid the long-term downward trend of roughly 11–12% per decade since 1979. Model consensus and post-2007 analogs favor a September minimum most likely between 4.2–4.6 million km², aligning with the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million km² bin at 44% implied probability. Ongoing NSIDC daily observations and revised Sea Ice Outlook releases through late August will supply key updates for traders monitoring melt progression and weather patterns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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