This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Jul 22 2026
US military reports 17 total deaths in Iran conflict amid ongoing strikes
July 22 jumps to 92%8%
By July 22, the US military reported a total of 17 deaths in the conflict with Iran, with ongoing strikes continuing. Despite this, Israel had not engaged in direct qualifying military actions against Iran, supporting market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold through July 22.
Jul 21 2026
US weighs 10-day ceasefire or full military campaign against Iran
July 22 rises to 94%3%
On July 21, 2026, reports indicated that US President Trump was considering accepting a 10-day ceasefire proposal or pursuing a broader military campaign with Israel against Iran. This uncertainty caused some market volatility but overall maintained optimism for a short-term ceasefire continuation, especially for the July 22 outcome.
Jul 21 2026
Iranian Interior Minister visits Pakistan to seek diplomatic revival
July 25 jumps to 81%6%
Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited Pakistan on July 21, 2026, to engage with mediators and seek renewed diplomatic efforts to salvage the ceasefire and negotiate a permanent solution. This diplomatic activity supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through mid to late July.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day ceasefire to Iran to revive interim deal
July 22 jumps to 94%14%
On July 20, 2026, senior Iranian officials confirmed receiving a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at de-escalating the conflict and reviving the interim ceasefire agreement. This diplomatic development boosted market confidence significantly, reflected in sharp price increases for the July 20 and July 22 outcomes.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day ceasefire to revive interim Iran-US deal
July 20 jumps to 93%6%
On July 20, mediators passed Iran a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reviving the interim deal signed in June. This diplomatic development reinforced market confidence in the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding through July 20 and beyond, as it suggested efforts to de-escalate the broader conflict were ongoing.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day truce to revive US-Iran ceasefire deal
July 25 jumps to 84%14%
On July 20, 2026, mediators presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Regional mediators present 10-day ceasefire proposal to Iran and US
July 20 jumps to 99%9%
On July 20, 2026, mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented a 10-day truce proposal aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal between Iran and the US, which also affected the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire would continue through near-term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators present Iran with 10-day truce proposal to revive interim ceasefire
July 20 rises to 96%3%
On July 20, 2026, regional mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near-term dates.
Jul 19 2026
US launches ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran; Iran retaliates against US bases
July 20 jumps to 99%7%
On July 19, 2026, the US conducted a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct qualifying military actions occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuation through July 20.
Jul 19 2026
US Central Command shares video of ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran
July 20 rises to 90%4%
On July 19, 2026, US Central Command released footage showing ongoing strikes against Iran, signaling sustained US military pressure. Iran refrained from direct attacks on Israel but continued missile barrages against US allies. Israel remained cautious, not directly engaging Iran, which supported market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire remained intact through near-term dates.
Jul 19 2026
US and Iran exchange strikes; Israel and Iran maintain ceasefire
July 20 jumps to 99%11%
On July 19, 2026, the US launched a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct military actions qualifying as ceasefire violations occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuing through July 20 and beyond.
Jul 18 2026
Israel refrains from strikes on Iran amid ongoing US-Iran conflict
July 18 jumps to 100%7%
Despite ongoing US strikes on Iran and Iranian threats, Israel did not engage in military actions against Iran on July 18, 2026, reinforcing market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold through this date.
Jul 18 2026
Israel abstains from strikes on Iran as ceasefire frays between US and Tehran
July 20 surges to 99%48%
Despite the breakdown of a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, Israel did not participate in recent strikes on Iran, and Iran refrained from attacking Israel. This absence of qualifying military actions between Israel and Iran supported the market's rising confidence in the ceasefire holding through July 20.
Jul 18 2026
US sends additional warplanes to Middle East as conflict with Iran intensifies
July 22 surges to 92%42%
Reports on July 18 indicated the US was deploying more warplanes, including F-35 and F-16 jets, to the Middle East to counter Iranian missile and radar capabilities. This military buildup heightened regional tensions but did not constitute a direct Israel-Iran strike, maintaining market optimism for the ceasefire continuation through July 22.
Jul 17 2026
US launches strikes on Iranian military and surveillance sites amid rising tensions
July 20 surges to 92%41%
On July 17, the US conducted strikes on Iranian coastal surveillance, air defense sites, and military infrastructure, including the destruction of a port surveillance tower used to track commercial vessels. These actions escalated tensions but did not involve direct military action between Israel and Iran, supporting market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire remained intact for near-term dates.
Jul 17 2026
US launches multiple strikes on Iran amid escalating conflict
July 20 surges to 78%27%
On July 17, 2026, the US military conducted strikes on Iranian military targets, marking continued hostilities after the collapse of the ceasefire earlier in July. These strikes increased tensions but did not directly involve Israel in attacks on Iran, maintaining the fragile ceasefire status between Israel and Iran. The market reflected uncertainty but maintained moderate confidence in the ceasefire holding through short-term dates.
Jul 17 2026
US sends dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel amid rising tensions with Iran
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US deployed additional refueling aircraft to Israel, signaling preparedness for potential escalation but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred. This bolstered market confidence that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remained intact as Israel refrained from strikes during this period.
Jul 17 2026
US deploys additional refueling aircraft to Israel amid regional tensions
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US sent dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel signaling preparedness for potential escalation, but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire continuation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Jul 22 2026
US military reports 17 total deaths in Iran conflict amid ongoing strikes
July 22 jumps to 92%8%
By July 22, the US military reported a total of 17 deaths in the conflict with Iran, with ongoing strikes continuing. Despite this, Israel had not engaged in direct qualifying military actions against Iran, supporting market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold through July 22.
Jul 21 2026
US weighs 10-day ceasefire or full military campaign against Iran
July 22 rises to 94%3%
On July 21, 2026, reports indicated that US President Trump was considering accepting a 10-day ceasefire proposal or pursuing a broader military campaign with Israel against Iran. This uncertainty caused some market volatility but overall maintained optimism for a short-term ceasefire continuation, especially for the July 22 outcome.
Jul 21 2026
Iranian Interior Minister visits Pakistan to seek diplomatic revival
July 25 jumps to 81%6%
Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited Pakistan on July 21, 2026, to engage with mediators and seek renewed diplomatic efforts to salvage the ceasefire and negotiate a permanent solution. This diplomatic activity supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through mid to late July.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day ceasefire to Iran to revive interim deal
July 22 jumps to 94%14%
On July 20, 2026, senior Iranian officials confirmed receiving a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at de-escalating the conflict and reviving the interim ceasefire agreement. This diplomatic development boosted market confidence significantly, reflected in sharp price increases for the July 20 and July 22 outcomes.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day ceasefire to revive interim Iran-US deal
July 20 jumps to 93%6%
On July 20, mediators passed Iran a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reviving the interim deal signed in June. This diplomatic development reinforced market confidence in the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding through July 20 and beyond, as it suggested efforts to de-escalate the broader conflict were ongoing.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day truce to revive US-Iran ceasefire deal
July 25 jumps to 84%14%
On July 20, 2026, mediators presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Regional mediators present 10-day ceasefire proposal to Iran and US
July 20 jumps to 99%9%
On July 20, 2026, mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented a 10-day truce proposal aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal between Iran and the US, which also affected the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire would continue through near-term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators present Iran with 10-day truce proposal to revive interim ceasefire
July 20 rises to 96%3%
On July 20, 2026, regional mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near-term dates.
Jul 19 2026
US launches ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran; Iran retaliates against US bases
July 20 jumps to 99%7%
On July 19, 2026, the US conducted a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct qualifying military actions occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuation through July 20.
Jul 19 2026
US Central Command shares video of ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran
July 20 rises to 90%4%
On July 19, 2026, US Central Command released footage showing ongoing strikes against Iran, signaling sustained US military pressure. Iran refrained from direct attacks on Israel but continued missile barrages against US allies. Israel remained cautious, not directly engaging Iran, which supported market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire remained intact through near-term dates.
Jul 19 2026
US and Iran exchange strikes; Israel and Iran maintain ceasefire
July 20 jumps to 99%11%
On July 19, 2026, the US launched a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct military actions qualifying as ceasefire violations occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuing through July 20 and beyond.
Jul 18 2026
Israel refrains from strikes on Iran amid ongoing US-Iran conflict
July 18 jumps to 100%7%
Despite ongoing US strikes on Iran and Iranian threats, Israel did not engage in military actions against Iran on July 18, 2026, reinforcing market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold through this date.
Jul 18 2026
Israel abstains from strikes on Iran as ceasefire frays between US and Tehran
July 20 surges to 99%48%
Despite the breakdown of a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, Israel did not participate in recent strikes on Iran, and Iran refrained from attacking Israel. This absence of qualifying military actions between Israel and Iran supported the market's rising confidence in the ceasefire holding through July 20.
Jul 18 2026
US sends additional warplanes to Middle East as conflict with Iran intensifies
July 22 surges to 92%42%
Reports on July 18 indicated the US was deploying more warplanes, including F-35 and F-16 jets, to the Middle East to counter Iranian missile and radar capabilities. This military buildup heightened regional tensions but did not constitute a direct Israel-Iran strike, maintaining market optimism for the ceasefire continuation through July 22.
Jul 17 2026
US launches strikes on Iranian military and surveillance sites amid rising tensions
July 20 surges to 92%41%
On July 17, the US conducted strikes on Iranian coastal surveillance, air defense sites, and military infrastructure, including the destruction of a port surveillance tower used to track commercial vessels. These actions escalated tensions but did not involve direct military action between Israel and Iran, supporting market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire remained intact for near-term dates.
Jul 17 2026
US launches multiple strikes on Iran amid escalating conflict
July 20 surges to 78%27%
On July 17, 2026, the US military conducted strikes on Iranian military targets, marking continued hostilities after the collapse of the ceasefire earlier in July. These strikes increased tensions but did not directly involve Israel in attacks on Iran, maintaining the fragile ceasefire status between Israel and Iran. The market reflected uncertainty but maintained moderate confidence in the ceasefire holding through short-term dates.
Jul 17 2026
US sends dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel amid rising tensions with Iran
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US deployed additional refueling aircraft to Israel, signaling preparedness for potential escalation but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred. This bolstered market confidence that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remained intact as Israel refrained from strikes during this period.
Jul 17 2026
US deploys additional refueling aircraft to Israel amid regional tensions
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US sent dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel signaling preparedness for potential escalation, but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire continuation.
"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 7 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "July 20" z 100%, za nim "July 18" z 100%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 100¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 100% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.
Na dzień dzisiejszy "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?" wygenerował $2.4 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Jul 16, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.
Aby handlować na "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?", przeglądaj 7 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.
Obecnym faworytem dla "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?" jest "July 20" z 100%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 100% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "July 18" z 100%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.
Zasady rozstrzygania "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.
Tak. Nie musisz handlować, aby być na bieżąco. Ta strona służy jako tracker na żywo dla "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?". Prawdopodobieństwa wyników aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym z każdą nową transakcją. Możesz dodać tę stronę do zakładek i sprawdzić sekcję komentarzy, aby zobaczyć, co myślą inni traderzy. Możesz też użyć filtrów zakresu czasu na wykresie, aby zobaczyć, jak kursy zmieniały się w czasie. To darmowe, działające w czasie rzeczywistym okno na to, czego rynek oczekuje.
Kursy Polymarket ustalane są przez prawdziwych traderów stawiających prawdziwe pieniądze za swoimi przekonaniami, co zwykle prowadzi do trafnych prognoz. Z $2.4 million wolumenu na "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?", ceny te agregują zbiorową wiedzę i zaangażowanie tysięcy uczestników — często przewyższając sondaże, prognozy ekspertów i tradycyjne badania. Rynki prognoz jak Polymarket mają silną historię trafności, szczególnie gdy wydarzenia zbliżają się do rozstrzygnięcia. Na przykład, Polymarket ma miesięczny wynik trafności 94%. Najnowsze statystyki trafności prognoz Polymarket znajdziesz na stronie trafności na Polymarket.
Aby złożyć swoje pierwsze zlecenie na "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?", zarejestruj darmowe konto Polymarket i doładuj je kryptowalutą, kartą kredytową lub debetową albo przelewem bankowym. Po doładowaniu konta wróć na tę stronę, wybierz wynik, na który chcesz handlować, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli jesteś nowy w rynkach prognoz, kliknij link "Jak to działa" na górze dowolnej strony Polymarket, aby zobaczyć szybki przewodnik krok po kroku.
Na Polymarket cena każdego wyniku reprezentuje implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Cena 100¢ za "July 20" na rynku "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?" oznacza, że traderzy zbiorowo wierzą, iż istnieje w przybliżeniu 100% szansy na to, że "July 20" będzie poprawnym wynikiem. Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" po 100¢ i wynik jest poprawny, otrzymasz $1.00 za udział — zysk 0¢ za udział. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, te udziały są warte $0.
Rynek "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?" jest zaplanowany na rozstrzygnięcie około Aug 31, 2026. Handel pozostaje otwarty, a kursy będą się zmieniać w miarę pojawiania się nowych informacji. Dokładny czas rozstrzygnięcia zależy od tego, kiedy oficjalny wynik stanie się dostępny, zgodnie z sekcją "Zasady" na tej stronie.
Rynek "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?" ma aktywną społeczność z 17 komentarzami, gdzie traderzy dzielą się swoimi analizami, debatują nad wynikami i omawiają najnowsze wydarzenia. Przewiń w dół do sekcji komentarzy, aby przeczytać, co myślą inni uczestnicy. Możesz też filtrować według "Najwięksi posiadacze", aby zobaczyć, na czym pozycjonują się największe portfele rynku, lub sprawdzić zakładkę "Aktywność" dla transmisji transakcji na żywo.
Polymarket to największy na świecie rynek prognoz, na którym możesz być na bieżąco i czerpać zyski ze swojej wiedzy o wydarzeniach w świecie rzeczywistym. Traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały w wynikach tematów od polityki i wyborów po kryptowaluty, finanse, sport, technologię i kulturę, w tym rynki takie jak "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?". Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym poparte finansowym zaangażowaniem, często dostarczając szybsze i trafniejsze sygnały niż sondaże, komentatorzy czy tradycyjne badania.
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