Recent Houthi naval blockade declarations targeting Saudi exports and associated attacks on Red Sea infrastructure have sharply curtailed vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the market-implied 69% probability on fewer than 200 weekly passages. Shipping data from late July showed daily volumes dropping to as low as 11 commodity vessels on one day—the lowest in months—before a modest rebound to 39 on July 28, still well below pre-escalation norms amid rerouting incentives and elevated war-risk premiums. These developments, compounded by broader regional tensions linking the strait to Strait of Hormuz flows, reinforce trader consensus around sustained suppression, with limited scope for a rapid return to 240-plus levels absent swift de-escalation before week-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
<200 69%
200-219 24%
240+ 5.2%
220-239 4.4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 2, 2026
<200
69%
200-219
24%
220-239
4%
240+
5%
<200 69%
200-219 24%
240+ 5.2%
220-239 4.4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 2, 2026
<200
$3,694 Wol.
69%
200-219
$830 Wol.
24%
220-239
$127 Wol.
4%
240+
$159 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi naval blockade declarations targeting Saudi exports and associated attacks on Red Sea infrastructure have sharply curtailed vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the market-implied 69% probability on fewer than 200 weekly passages. Shipping data from late July showed daily volumes dropping to as low as 11 commodity vessels on one day—the lowest in months—before a modest rebound to 39 on July 28, still well below pre-escalation norms amid rerouting incentives and elevated war-risk premiums. These developments, compounded by broader regional tensions linking the strait to Strait of Hormuz flows, reinforce trader consensus around sustained suppression, with limited scope for a rapid return to 240-plus levels absent swift de-escalation before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Wolumen
$4,809Data zakończenia
Aug 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi naval blockade declarations targeting Saudi exports and associated attacks on Red Sea infrastructure have sharply curtailed vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the market-implied 69% probability on fewer than 200 weekly passages. Shipping data from late July showed daily volumes dropping to as low as 11 commodity vessels on one day—the lowest in months—before a modest rebound to 39 on July 28, still well below pre-escalation norms amid rerouting incentives and elevated war-risk premiums. These developments, compounded by broader regional tensions linking the strait to Strait of Hormuz flows, reinforce trader consensus around sustained suppression, with limited scope for a rapid return to 240-plus levels absent swift de-escalation before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Wolumen
$4,809Data zakończenia
Aug 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi naval blockade declarations targeting Saudi exports and associated attacks on Red Sea infrastructure have sharply curtailed vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the market-implied 69% probability on fewer than 200 weekly passages. Shipping data from late July showed daily volumes dropping to as low as 11 commodity vessels on one day—the lowest in months—before a modest rebound to 39 on July 28, still well below pre-escalation norms amid rerouting incentives and elevated war-risk premiums. These developments, compounded by broader regional tensions linking the strait to Strait of Hormuz flows, reinforce trader consensus around sustained suppression, with limited scope for a rapid return to 240-plus levels absent swift de-escalation before week-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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