Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, coupled with attacks on Red Sea oil facilities and a partial rebound in daily commodity ship transits to 39 by late July, have created tight pricing around weekly Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and shipper rerouting decisions continue to suppress activity well below pre-2023 baselines near 500 transits, while a newly formed 14-nation maritime coalition introduces potential near-term stabilization. With implied probabilities clustered between 43.5% and 45.5% across the four buckets, markets reflect uncertainty over whether enforcement actions or deterrence will lift throughput toward 220+ or sustain levels below 180 for the August 3 week.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
220+ 45%
<180 45%
180-199 45%
200-219 42%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 9, 2026
<180
45%
180-199
45%
200-219
42%
220+
45%
220+ 45%
<180 45%
180-199 45%
200-219 42%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 9, 2026
<180
$0 Wol.
45%
180-199
$0 Wol.
45%
200-219
$0 Wol.
42%
220+
$0 Wol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, coupled with attacks on Red Sea oil facilities and a partial rebound in daily commodity ship transits to 39 by late July, have created tight pricing around weekly Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and shipper rerouting decisions continue to suppress activity well below pre-2023 baselines near 500 transits, while a newly formed 14-nation maritime coalition introduces potential near-term stabilization. With implied probabilities clustered between 43.5% and 45.5% across the four buckets, markets reflect uncertainty over whether enforcement actions or deterrence will lift throughput toward 220+ or sustain levels below 180 for the August 3 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, coupled with attacks on Red Sea oil facilities and a partial rebound in daily commodity ship transits to 39 by late July, have created tight pricing around weekly Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and shipper rerouting decisions continue to suppress activity well below pre-2023 baselines near 500 transits, while a newly formed 14-nation maritime coalition introduces potential near-term stabilization. With implied probabilities clustered between 43.5% and 45.5% across the four buckets, markets reflect uncertainty over whether enforcement actions or deterrence will lift throughput toward 220+ or sustain levels below 180 for the August 3 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, coupled with attacks on Red Sea oil facilities and a partial rebound in daily commodity ship transits to 39 by late July, have created tight pricing around weekly Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and shipper rerouting decisions continue to suppress activity well below pre-2023 baselines near 500 transits, while a newly formed 14-nation maritime coalition introduces potential near-term stabilization. With implied probabilities clustered between 43.5% and 45.5% across the four buckets, markets reflect uncertainty over whether enforcement actions or deterrence will lift throughput toward 220+ or sustain levels below 180 for the August 3 week.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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