Trader consensus favors a São Paulo maximum of 25–26 °C on 15 August because the latest model runs cluster tightly around that range amid typical winter conditions. Subtropical high pressure and a modest positive temperature anomaly (+0.4 °C regionally) support mild daytime warming, yet increased low-level moisture and overcast skies are expected to limit solar heating and cap the peak. Ensemble differences arise mainly from boundary-layer wind speed and cloud timing: slightly stronger southerly flow or earlier cloud build-up favors 25 °C, while clearer intervals or lighter winds allow brief additional warming toward 26 °C. Historical August maxima near 25 °C and the absence of strong frontal systems reinforce the narrow spread seen in market-implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 15?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 15?
26°C 35%
25°C 30%
24°C 16%
27°C 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
7%
24°C
16%
25°C
30%
26°C
35%
27°C
12%
28°C
5%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 35%
25°C 30%
24°C 16%
27°C 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$25 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$57 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$208 Wol.
1%
23°C
$523 Wol.
7%
24°C
$554 Wol.
16%
25°C
$528 Wol.
30%
26°C
$1,635 Wol.
35%
27°C
$508 Wol.
12%
28°C
$27 Wol.
5%
29°C
$35 Wol.
1%
30°C or higher
$118 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a São Paulo maximum of 25–26 °C on 15 August because the latest model runs cluster tightly around that range amid typical winter conditions. Subtropical high pressure and a modest positive temperature anomaly (+0.4 °C regionally) support mild daytime warming, yet increased low-level moisture and overcast skies are expected to limit solar heating and cap the peak. Ensemble differences arise mainly from boundary-layer wind speed and cloud timing: slightly stronger southerly flow or earlier cloud build-up favors 25 °C, while clearer intervals or lighter winds allow brief additional warming toward 26 °C. Historical August maxima near 25 °C and the absence of strong frontal systems reinforce the narrow spread seen in market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Wolumen
$4,219Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a São Paulo maximum of 25–26 °C on 15 August because the latest model runs cluster tightly around that range amid typical winter conditions. Subtropical high pressure and a modest positive temperature anomaly (+0.4 °C regionally) support mild daytime warming, yet increased low-level moisture and overcast skies are expected to limit solar heating and cap the peak. Ensemble differences arise mainly from boundary-layer wind speed and cloud timing: slightly stronger southerly flow or earlier cloud build-up favors 25 °C, while clearer intervals or lighter winds allow brief additional warming toward 26 °C. Historical August maxima near 25 °C and the absence of strong frontal systems reinforce the narrow spread seen in market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$4,219Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a São Paulo maximum of 25–26 °C on 15 August because the latest model runs cluster tightly around that range amid typical winter conditions. Subtropical high pressure and a modest positive temperature anomaly (+0.4 °C regionally) support mild daytime warming, yet increased low-level moisture and overcast skies are expected to limit solar heating and cap the peak. Ensemble differences arise mainly from boundary-layer wind speed and cloud timing: slightly stronger southerly flow or earlier cloud build-up favors 25 °C, while clearer intervals or lighter winds allow brief additional warming toward 26 °C. Historical August maxima near 25 °C and the absence of strong frontal systems reinforce the narrow spread seen in market-implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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