Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects substantial forecast uncertainty for Taipei's peak temperature on August 16, with market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 33°C and 34°C near 50%. Short-range ensemble models from agencies such as Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global systems show daytime highs sensitive to subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat retention amid typical August monsoon flow. Historical climatology places late-summer maxima near 33°C, yet recent model runs indicate potential for slight warming if subsidence strengthens or for moderation if convective activity increases, keeping outcomes in the 32–35°C range competitive while rendering extremes below 30°C or above 36°C low-probability under current guidance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Taipei on August 16?
Highest temperature in Taipei on August 16?
35°C 52%
34°C 36%
36°C 32%
31°C 31%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
31%
32°C
17%
33°C
27%
34°C
36%
35°C
37%
36°C
32%
37°C
4%
38°C
3%
39°C or higher
3%
35°C 52%
34°C 36%
36°C 32%
31°C 31%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
29°C or below
$5 Wol.
1%
30°C
$5 Wol.
1%
31°C
$27 Wol.
31%
32°C
$27 Wol.
17%
33°C
$0 Wol.
27%
34°C
$0 Wol.
36%
35°C
$0 Wol.
37%
36°C
$11 Wol.
32%
37°C
$0 Wol.
4%
38°C
$0 Wol.
3%
39°C or higher
$5 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects substantial forecast uncertainty for Taipei's peak temperature on August 16, with market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 33°C and 34°C near 50%. Short-range ensemble models from agencies such as Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global systems show daytime highs sensitive to subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat retention amid typical August monsoon flow. Historical climatology places late-summer maxima near 33°C, yet recent model runs indicate potential for slight warming if subsidence strengthens or for moderation if convective activity increases, keeping outcomes in the 32–35°C range competitive while rendering extremes below 30°C or above 36°C low-probability under current guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$80Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects substantial forecast uncertainty for Taipei's peak temperature on August 16, with market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 33°C and 34°C near 50%. Short-range ensemble models from agencies such as Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global systems show daytime highs sensitive to subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat retention amid typical August monsoon flow. Historical climatology places late-summer maxima near 33°C, yet recent model runs indicate potential for slight warming if subsidence strengthens or for moderation if convective activity increases, keeping outcomes in the 32–35°C range competitive while rendering extremes below 30°C or above 36°C low-probability under current guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$80Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects substantial forecast uncertainty for Taipei's peak temperature on August 16, with market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 33°C and 34°C near 50%. Short-range ensemble models from agencies such as Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global systems show daytime highs sensitive to subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat retention amid typical August monsoon flow. Historical climatology places late-summer maxima near 33°C, yet recent model runs indicate potential for slight warming if subsidence strengthens or for moderation if convective activity increases, keeping outcomes in the 32–35°C range competitive while rendering extremes below 30°C or above 36°C low-probability under current guidance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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