Forecast models from AEMET and other agencies indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum near 37–38°C on August 7 under persistent high-pressure conditions and northerly flow that limits cooling while allowing strong daytime solar heating. Recent heatwave patterns across central Spain, with verified maxima frequently exceeding 35°C in early August, underpin the tight market split between 38°C (50.5% implied probability) and 39°C (44.5%). Small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or urban heat-island effects can shift the recorded peak by 1°C, creating the observed near-even trader consensus. Updated model runs and official observations on the day will determine final resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on August 7?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 7?
38°C 51%
39°C 45%
37°C 6%
40°C 4%
NOWE
$12,140 Wol.
NOWE
$12,140 Wol.
Aug 7, 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
6%
38°C
51%
39°C
45%
40°C
4%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
38°C 51%
39°C 45%
37°C 6%
40°C 4%
NOWE
$12,140 Wol.
NOWE
$12,140 Wol.
Aug 7, 2026
35°C or below
$519 Wol.
<1%
36°C
$408 Wol.
<1%
37°C
$2,105 Wol.
6%
38°C
$3,477 Wol.
51%
39°C
$2,733 Wol.
45%
40°C
$742 Wol.
4%
41°C
$637 Wol.
<1%
42°C
$481 Wol.
<1%
43°C
$410 Wol.
<1%
44°C
$231 Wol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$397 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from AEMET and other agencies indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum near 37–38°C on August 7 under persistent high-pressure conditions and northerly flow that limits cooling while allowing strong daytime solar heating. Recent heatwave patterns across central Spain, with verified maxima frequently exceeding 35°C in early August, underpin the tight market split between 38°C (50.5% implied probability) and 39°C (44.5%). Small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or urban heat-island effects can shift the recorded peak by 1°C, creating the observed near-even trader consensus. Updated model runs and official observations on the day will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$12,140Data zakończenia
Aug 7, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from AEMET and other agencies indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum near 37–38°C on August 7 under persistent high-pressure conditions and northerly flow that limits cooling while allowing strong daytime solar heating. Recent heatwave patterns across central Spain, with verified maxima frequently exceeding 35°C in early August, underpin the tight market split between 38°C (50.5% implied probability) and 39°C (44.5%). Small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or urban heat-island effects can shift the recorded peak by 1°C, creating the observed near-even trader consensus. Updated model runs and official observations on the day will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$12,140Data zakończenia
Aug 7, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from AEMET and other agencies indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum near 37–38°C on August 7 under persistent high-pressure conditions and northerly flow that limits cooling while allowing strong daytime solar heating. Recent heatwave patterns across central Spain, with verified maxima frequently exceeding 35°C in early August, underpin the tight market split between 38°C (50.5% implied probability) and 39°C (44.5%). Small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or urban heat-island effects can shift the recorded peak by 1°C, creating the observed near-even trader consensus. Updated model runs and official observations on the day will determine final resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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