China's military continues to prioritize gray-zone coercion, joint blockade exercises, and incremental air-sea control around Taiwan rather than mounting a full amphibious invasion, according to Taiwan's September 2026 defense assessments. Recent Ministry of National Defense reports note that the People's Liberation Army still lacks sufficient capabilities for sustained multi-domain landings, logistics sustainment, and command integration, despite ongoing acquisitions and study of lessons from Ukraine and other conflicts. Leadership purges within the PLA have further complicated operational readiness. Routine patrols, aircraft incursions, and coast guard activity persist but align with encirclement and pressure tactics rather than imminent assault preparations. Trader consensus at 96.3% for no invasion by year-end reflects these structural constraints, though sudden miscalculation, Taiwanese policy shifts, or accelerated Chinese force modernization could still alter trajectories before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$40,644,874 Vol.
$40,644,874 Vol.
2026/12/30
3.25%を獲得
はい
4% 確率
$40,644,874 Vol.
$40,644,874 Vol.
2026/12/30
3.25%を獲得
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China's military continues to prioritize gray-zone coercion, joint blockade exercises, and incremental air-sea control around Taiwan rather than mounting a full amphibious invasion, according to Taiwan's September 2026 defense assessments. Recent Ministry of National Defense reports note that the People's Liberation Army still lacks sufficient capabilities for sustained multi-domain landings, logistics sustainment, and command integration, despite ongoing acquisitions and study of lessons from Ukraine and other conflicts. Leadership purges within the PLA have further complicated operational readiness. Routine patrols, aircraft incursions, and coast guard activity persist but align with encirclement and pressure tactics rather than imminent assault preparations. Trader consensus at 96.3% for no invasion by year-end reflects these structural constraints, though sudden miscalculation, Taiwanese policy shifts, or accelerated Chinese force modernization could still alter trajectories before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
音量
$40,644,874終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China's military continues to prioritize gray-zone coercion, joint blockade exercises, and incremental air-sea control around Taiwan rather than mounting a full amphibious invasion, according to Taiwan's September 2026 defense assessments. Recent Ministry of National Defense reports note that the People's Liberation Army still lacks sufficient capabilities for sustained multi-domain landings, logistics sustainment, and command integration, despite ongoing acquisitions and study of lessons from Ukraine and other conflicts. Leadership purges within the PLA have further complicated operational readiness. Routine patrols, aircraft incursions, and coast guard activity persist but align with encirclement and pressure tactics rather than imminent assault preparations. Trader consensus at 96.3% for no invasion by year-end reflects these structural constraints, though sudden miscalculation, Taiwanese policy shifts, or accelerated Chinese force modernization could still alter trajectories before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$40,644,874終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...China's military continues to prioritize gray-zone coercion, joint blockade exercises, and incremental air-sea control around Taiwan rather than mounting a full amphibious invasion, according to Taiwan's September 2026 defense assessments. Recent Ministry of National Defense reports note that the People's Liberation Army still lacks sufficient capabilities for sustained multi-domain landings, logistics sustainment, and command integration, despite ongoing acquisitions and study of lessons from Ukraine and other conflicts. Leadership purges within the PLA have further complicated operational readiness. Routine patrols, aircraft incursions, and coast guard activity persist but align with encirclement and pressure tactics rather than imminent assault preparations. Trader consensus at 96.3% for no invasion by year-end reflects these structural constraints, though sudden miscalculation, Taiwanese policy shifts, or accelerated Chinese force modernization could still alter trajectories before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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