The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects entrenched internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which have delayed cabinet formation since the 2024 elections and blocked unified action. Economic dependence on revenue-sharing and oil export deals with Baghdad, renewed through 2025-2026, reinforces coordination rather than confrontation. Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court has upheld the unconstitutionality of secession, while Iran, Turkey, and other neighbors maintain firm opposition to any territorial breakup. Recent Iranian strikes on the Kurdistan Region in 2026 and KRG emphasis on regional neutrality amid broader conflicts have further prioritized stability over unilateral moves. No parliamentary votes, executive announcements, or diplomatic preparations have emerged to shift these structural barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
$272,582 Vol.
$272,582 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
6% 確率
$272,582 Vol.
$272,582 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects entrenched internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which have delayed cabinet formation since the 2024 elections and blocked unified action. Economic dependence on revenue-sharing and oil export deals with Baghdad, renewed through 2025-2026, reinforces coordination rather than confrontation. Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court has upheld the unconstitutionality of secession, while Iran, Turkey, and other neighbors maintain firm opposition to any territorial breakup. Recent Iranian strikes on the Kurdistan Region in 2026 and KRG emphasis on regional neutrality amid broader conflicts have further prioritized stability over unilateral moves. No parliamentary votes, executive announcements, or diplomatic preparations have emerged to shift these structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$272,582終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects entrenched internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which have delayed cabinet formation since the 2024 elections and blocked unified action. Economic dependence on revenue-sharing and oil export deals with Baghdad, renewed through 2025-2026, reinforces coordination rather than confrontation. Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court has upheld the unconstitutionality of secession, while Iran, Turkey, and other neighbors maintain firm opposition to any territorial breakup. Recent Iranian strikes on the Kurdistan Region in 2026 and KRG emphasis on regional neutrality amid broader conflicts have further prioritized stability over unilateral moves. No parliamentary votes, executive announcements, or diplomatic preparations have emerged to shift these structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$272,582終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects entrenched internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which have delayed cabinet formation since the 2024 elections and blocked unified action. Economic dependence on revenue-sharing and oil export deals with Baghdad, renewed through 2025-2026, reinforces coordination rather than confrontation. Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court has upheld the unconstitutionality of secession, while Iran, Turkey, and other neighbors maintain firm opposition to any territorial breakup. Recent Iranian strikes on the Kurdistan Region in 2026 and KRG emphasis on regional neutrality amid broader conflicts have further prioritized stability over unilateral moves. No parliamentary votes, executive announcements, or diplomatic preparations have emerged to shift these structural barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問