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icon for これらの民主党議員のうち、大統領選に立候補することを最初に発表するのは誰でしょうか？
政治·社長

これらの民主党議員のうち、大統領選に立候補することを最初に発表するのは誰でしょうか？

icon for これらの民主党議員のうち、大統領選に立候補することを最初に発表するのは誰でしょうか？
政治·社長

これらの民主党議員のうち、大統領選に立候補することを最初に発表するのは誰でしょうか？

アンディ・ベシア 29%

ギャビン・ニューサム 19.6%

カマラ・ハリス 13%

ピート・ブティジェッジ 11%

Polymarket
新規

アンディ・ベシア 29%

ギャビン・ニューサム 19.6%

カマラ・ハリス 13%

ピート・ブティジェッジ 11%

Polymarket
新規

アンディ・ベシア

$1,914 Vol.

29%

ギャビン・ニューサム

$2,889 Vol.

20%

カマラ・ハリス

$550 Vol.

13%

ピート・ブティジェッジ

$603 Vol.

11%

ロ・カンナ

$463 Vol.

9%

ラーム・エマニュエル

$656 Vol.

8%

ジョシュ・シャピロ

$306 Vol.

4%

スティーブン・A・スミス

$300 Vol.

3%

ジョン・オソフ

$306 Vol.

2%

アレクサンドリア・オカシオ＝コルテス

$391 Vol.

1%

ジョン・スチュワート

$364 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No candidate has formally announced a 2028 Democratic presidential bid as of mid-August 2026, driving the 50% share for Other while positioning the listed contenders as speculative early movers. Traders appear to favor Andy Beshear at 29% given his reelection success in Republican-leaning Kentucky and moderate profile that could enable a swift post-midterm launch. Gavin Newsom’s 19.6% reflects his national visibility and term-limited California governorship, though recent comments tie any decision to after the 2026 elections. Kamala Harris at 12.5% stems from lingering 2024 performance questions despite her strong support among Black voters, a factor reinforced by the DNC’s July approval of a South Carolina-first primary calendar. Lower odds for Pete Buttigieg, Ro Khanna, and others track limited recent signals of imminent announcements amid the wide-open field.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$8,743
終了日
2027/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No candidate has formally announced a 2028 Democratic presidential bid as of mid-August 2026, driving the 50% share for Other while positioning the listed contenders as speculative early movers. Traders appear to favor Andy Beshear at 29% given his reelection success in Republican-leaning Kentucky and moderate profile that could enable a swift post-midterm launch. Gavin Newsom’s 19.6% reflects his national visibility and term-limited California governorship, though recent comments tie any decision to after the 2026 elections. Kamala Harris at 12.5% stems from lingering 2024 performance questions despite her strong support among Black voters, a factor reinforced by the DNC’s July approval of a South Carolina-first primary calendar. Lower odds for Pete Buttigieg, Ro Khanna, and others track limited recent signals of imminent announcements amid the wide-open field.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$8,743
終了日
2027/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

関連

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icon for ギャビン・ニューサムは2027年までに大統領選への出馬を表明しますか？

ギャビン・ニューサムは2027年までに大統領選への出馬を表明しますか？

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11%
はい

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よくある質問

「これらの民主党議員のうち、大統領選に立候補することを最初に発表するのは誰でしょうか？」はPolymarket上の11個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「アンディ・ベシア」で29%、次いで「ギャビン・ニューサム」が20%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、29¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に29%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「これらの民主党議員のうち、大統領選に立候補することを最初に発表するのは誰でしょうか？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Jul 9, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「これらの民主党議員のうち、大統領選に立候補することを最初に発表するのは誰でしょうか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている11個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「これらの民主党議員のうち、大統領選に立候補することを最初に発表するのは誰でしょうか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「アンディ・ベシア」で29%であり、市場がこの結果に29%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ギャビン・ニューサム」で20%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「これらの民主党議員のうち、大統領選に立候補することを最初に発表するのは誰でしょうか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。