Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the second-largest of 2026 behind only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for third place. Strong critical scores near 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal helped it outpace The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million debut while establishing a high benchmark few remaining releases are expected to clear. With Avengers: Doomsday viewed as the likeliest film to slot above it and no other confirmed 2026 tentpole tracking in the narrow window between these totals, the market prices in a clear three-film hierarchy once the year closes. An upset would require an unexpected late-year opener exceeding $160 million or a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Toy Story’s standing relative to Mario or The Odyssey.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年に3番目に大きな公開週末を迎えた映画はどれですか？
2026年に3番目に大きな公開週末を迎えた映画はどれですか？
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.2%
Avengers: Doomsday 1.8%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$28,274 Vol.
$28,274 Vol.
2026/12/31
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.2%
Avengers: Doomsday 1.8%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$28,274 Vol.
$28,274 Vol.
2026/12/31
Toy Story 5
$18,534 Vol.
95%
Dune: Messiah
$1,847 Vol.
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,500 Vol.
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$1,406 Vol.
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$2,067 Vol.
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$1,285 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the second-largest of 2026 behind only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for third place. Strong critical scores near 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal helped it outpace The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million debut while establishing a high benchmark few remaining releases are expected to clear. With Avengers: Doomsday viewed as the likeliest film to slot above it and no other confirmed 2026 tentpole tracking in the narrow window between these totals, the market prices in a clear three-film hierarchy once the year closes. An upset would require an unexpected late-year opener exceeding $160 million or a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Toy Story’s standing relative to Mario or The Odyssey.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
音量
$28,274終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the second-largest of 2026 behind only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for third place. Strong critical scores near 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal helped it outpace The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million debut while establishing a high benchmark few remaining releases are expected to clear. With Avengers: Doomsday viewed as the likeliest film to slot above it and no other confirmed 2026 tentpole tracking in the narrow window between these totals, the market prices in a clear three-film hierarchy once the year closes. An upset would require an unexpected late-year opener exceeding $160 million or a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Toy Story’s standing relative to Mario or The Odyssey.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$28,274終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the second-largest of 2026 behind only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for third place. Strong critical scores near 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal helped it outpace The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million debut while establishing a high benchmark few remaining releases are expected to clear. With Avengers: Doomsday viewed as the likeliest film to slot above it and no other confirmed 2026 tentpole tracking in the narrow window between these totals, the market prices in a clear three-film hierarchy once the year closes. An upset would require an unexpected late-year opener exceeding $160 million or a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Toy Story’s standing relative to Mario or The Odyssey.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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