The absence of any congressional legislation authorizing conscription, combined with the U.S. military's sustained all-volunteer force structure, underpins traders' strong consensus against draft authorization in 2026. Recent developments, including automatic Selective Service registration provisions in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, enhance contingency readiness without altering the legal threshold for induction, which would require separate statutory changes to the Military Selective Service Act. Ongoing wargaming and system updates by the Selective Service System reflect contingency planning rather than imminent policy shifts. A major escalation in conflict or sudden personnel shortfall could prompt legislative consideration, though current conditions show no such catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$521,368 Vol.
$521,368 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
5% 確率
$521,368 Vol.
$521,368 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any congressional legislation authorizing conscription, combined with the U.S. military's sustained all-volunteer force structure, underpins traders' strong consensus against draft authorization in 2026. Recent developments, including automatic Selective Service registration provisions in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, enhance contingency readiness without altering the legal threshold for induction, which would require separate statutory changes to the Military Selective Service Act. Ongoing wargaming and system updates by the Selective Service System reflect contingency planning rather than imminent policy shifts. A major escalation in conflict or sudden personnel shortfall could prompt legislative consideration, though current conditions show no such catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
音量
$521,368終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any congressional legislation authorizing conscription, combined with the U.S. military's sustained all-volunteer force structure, underpins traders' strong consensus against draft authorization in 2026. Recent developments, including automatic Selective Service registration provisions in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, enhance contingency readiness without altering the legal threshold for induction, which would require separate statutory changes to the Military Selective Service Act. Ongoing wargaming and system updates by the Selective Service System reflect contingency planning rather than imminent policy shifts. A major escalation in conflict or sudden personnel shortfall could prompt legislative consideration, though current conditions show no such catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$521,368終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any congressional legislation authorizing conscription, combined with the U.S. military's sustained all-volunteer force structure, underpins traders' strong consensus against draft authorization in 2026. Recent developments, including automatic Selective Service registration provisions in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, enhance contingency readiness without altering the legal threshold for induction, which would require separate statutory changes to the Military Selective Service Act. Ongoing wargaming and system updates by the Selective Service System reflect contingency planning rather than imminent policy shifts. A major escalation in conflict or sudden personnel shortfall could prompt legislative consideration, though current conditions show no such catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問