Persistent polling weakness for Liberalerna underpins the 88% trader consensus against the party winning Riksdag seats. Recent surveys, including an early August Novus poll for Svenska Dagbladet, place the party at 2.4%, with earlier June–July readings between 1.7% and 2.9%—all well below Sweden’s 4% national threshold. As the smallest partner in the Tidö coalition government, the Liberals face structural pressure from stronger bloc allies and a resurgent centre-left opposition led by the Social Democrats. Internal strains, including leadership transition to Simona Mohamsson and regional defections over cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, have further eroded support ahead of the September 13 election. These trends have remained stable over the past two months, limiting any realistic path to parliamentary representation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
12% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/13
はい
12% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/13
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Persistent polling weakness for Liberalerna underpins the 88% trader consensus against the party winning Riksdag seats. Recent surveys, including an early August Novus poll for Svenska Dagbladet, place the party at 2.4%, with earlier June–July readings between 1.7% and 2.9%—all well below Sweden’s 4% national threshold. As the smallest partner in the Tidö coalition government, the Liberals face structural pressure from stronger bloc allies and a resurgent centre-left opposition led by the Social Democrats. Internal strains, including leadership transition to Simona Mohamsson and regional defections over cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, have further eroded support ahead of the September 13 election. These trends have remained stable over the past two months, limiting any realistic path to parliamentary representation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 5:12 AM ET
音量
$694終了日
2026/09/13マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 5:12 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Persistent polling weakness for Liberalerna underpins the 88% trader consensus against the party winning Riksdag seats. Recent surveys, including an early August Novus poll for Svenska Dagbladet, place the party at 2.4%, with earlier June–July readings between 1.7% and 2.9%—all well below Sweden’s 4% national threshold. As the smallest partner in the Tidö coalition government, the Liberals face structural pressure from stronger bloc allies and a resurgent centre-left opposition led by the Social Democrats. Internal strains, including leadership transition to Simona Mohamsson and regional defections over cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, have further eroded support ahead of the September 13 election. These trends have remained stable over the past two months, limiting any realistic path to parliamentary representation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
音量
$694終了日
2026/09/13マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 5:12 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent polling weakness for Liberalerna underpins the 88% trader consensus against the party winning Riksdag seats. Recent surveys, including an early August Novus poll for Svenska Dagbladet, place the party at 2.4%, with earlier June–July readings between 1.7% and 2.9%—all well below Sweden’s 4% national threshold. As the smallest partner in the Tidö coalition government, the Liberals face structural pressure from stronger bloc allies and a resurgent centre-left opposition led by the Social Democrats. Internal strains, including leadership transition to Simona Mohamsson and regional defections over cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, have further eroded support ahead of the September 13 election. These trends have remained stable over the past two months, limiting any realistic path to parliamentary representation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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