Strong corporate earnings momentum, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending, underpins the 45.5% market-implied odds for an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by end-2026. With the index trading near 7,657 in mid-September after a year-to-date advance of roughly 12%, recent quarterly results from major tech firms have prompted multiple Wall Street firms to lift 2026 targets into the 7,950–8,100 range. Hotter-than-expected inflation prints and elevated Treasury yields have reinforced expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, tempering multiples while leaving earnings growth as the dominant driver. The upcoming September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could influence the path to year-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8,000ドル超 45%
7,500～8,000ドル 23%
7,000～7,500ドル 20%
6,500〜7,000ドル 11%
$43,022 Vol.
$43,022 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
8%
6,000～6,500ドル
7%
6,500〜7,000ドル
11%
7,000～7,500ドル
20%
7,500～8,000ドル
23%
8,000ドル超
45%
8,000ドル超 45%
7,500～8,000ドル 23%
7,000～7,500ドル 20%
6,500〜7,000ドル 11%
$43,022 Vol.
$43,022 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$22,339 Vol.
8%
6,000～6,500ドル
$2,376 Vol.
7%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$4,628 Vol.
11%
7,000～7,500ドル
$2,756 Vol.
20%
7,500～8,000ドル
$4,299 Vol.
23%
8,000ドル超
$6,624 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings momentum, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending, underpins the 45.5% market-implied odds for an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by end-2026. With the index trading near 7,657 in mid-September after a year-to-date advance of roughly 12%, recent quarterly results from major tech firms have prompted multiple Wall Street firms to lift 2026 targets into the 7,950–8,100 range. Hotter-than-expected inflation prints and elevated Treasury yields have reinforced expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, tempering multiples while leaving earnings growth as the dominant driver. The upcoming September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could influence the path to year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$43,022終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings momentum, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending, underpins the 45.5% market-implied odds for an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by end-2026. With the index trading near 7,657 in mid-September after a year-to-date advance of roughly 12%, recent quarterly results from major tech firms have prompted multiple Wall Street firms to lift 2026 targets into the 7,950–8,100 range. Hotter-than-expected inflation prints and elevated Treasury yields have reinforced expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, tempering multiples while leaving earnings growth as the dominant driver. The upcoming September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could influence the path to year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$43,022終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETStrong corporate earnings momentum, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending, underpins the 45.5% market-implied odds for an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by end-2026. With the index trading near 7,657 in mid-September after a year-to-date advance of roughly 12%, recent quarterly results from major tech firms have prompted multiple Wall Street firms to lift 2026 targets into the 7,950–8,100 range. Hotter-than-expected inflation prints and elevated Treasury yields have reinforced expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, tempering multiples while leaving earnings growth as the dominant driver. The upcoming September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could influence the path to year-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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