Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race after securing his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith, who won a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential results—and Merkley's long incumbency since 2009 create structural advantages that align with trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state since 2002. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current conditions point to limited volatility before the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
97%
共和党
3%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$3,632 Vol.
97%
共和党
$2,946 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race after securing his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith, who won a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential results—and Merkley's long incumbency since 2009 create structural advantages that align with trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state since 2002. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current conditions point to limited volatility before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$6,578終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race after securing his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith, who won a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential results—and Merkley's long incumbency since 2009 create structural advantages that align with trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state since 2002. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current conditions point to limited volatility before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$6,578終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race after securing his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith, who won a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential results—and Merkley's long incumbency since 2009 create structural advantages that align with trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state since 2002. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current conditions point to limited volatility before the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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