Several 2026 Senate contests remain structurally competitive due to the midterm environment, open seats, and states that split recent presidential results. Michigan stands out as a leading battleground, with the Democratic-held seat in a state carried by the opposing party in 2024 and a tight Democratic primary underway ahead of the August 4 vote. Texas features an open Republican seat where recent polling shows the Democratic challenger narrowing the gap to single digits. South Carolina’s special primary on August 11 to replace a vacant nomination adds procedural uncertainty that could influence general-election positioning. Traders monitor these dynamics alongside national polling trends, candidate recruitment, and fundraising, as narrow margins in a handful of states will determine overall chamber control and the number of races finishing inside five points.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$21,139 Vol.
2026/11/03
オハイオ（特別）
76%
ミシガン州
75%
アイオワ
74%
テキサス州
71%
アラスカ州
71%
メイン州
66%
ニューハンプシャー州
47%
ネブラスカ州
45%
ジョージア州
35%
フロリダ（特別）
29%
ノースカロライナ州
28%
ミネソタ州
26%
ニューメキシコ州
11%
モンタナ
8%
バージニア州
5%
コロラド州
3%
$21,139 Vol.
オハイオ（特別）
$590 Vol.
76%
ミシガン州
$519 Vol.
75%
アイオワ
$766 Vol.
74%
テキサス州
$1,937 Vol.
71%
アラスカ州
$354 Vol.
71%
メイン州
$228 Vol.
66%
ニューハンプシャー州
$1,001 Vol.
47%
ネブラスカ州
$1,867 Vol.
45%
ジョージア州
$163 Vol.
35%
フロリダ（特別）
$977 Vol.
29%
ノースカロライナ州
$1,712 Vol.
28%
ミネソタ州
$5,497 Vol.
26%
ニューメキシコ州
$1,813 Vol.
11%
モンタナ
$1,257 Vol.
8%
バージニア州
$897 Vol.
5%
コロラド州
$1,562 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain structurally competitive due to the midterm environment, open seats, and states that split recent presidential results. Michigan stands out as a leading battleground, with the Democratic-held seat in a state carried by the opposing party in 2024 and a tight Democratic primary underway ahead of the August 4 vote. Texas features an open Republican seat where recent polling shows the Democratic challenger narrowing the gap to single digits. South Carolina’s special primary on August 11 to replace a vacant nomination adds procedural uncertainty that could influence general-election positioning. Traders monitor these dynamics alongside national polling trends, candidate recruitment, and fundraising, as narrow margins in a handful of states will determine overall chamber control and the number of races finishing inside five points.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
音量
$21,139終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain structurally competitive due to the midterm environment, open seats, and states that split recent presidential results. Michigan stands out as a leading battleground, with the Democratic-held seat in a state carried by the opposing party in 2024 and a tight Democratic primary underway ahead of the August 4 vote. Texas features an open Republican seat where recent polling shows the Democratic challenger narrowing the gap to single digits. South Carolina’s special primary on August 11 to replace a vacant nomination adds procedural uncertainty that could influence general-election positioning. Traders monitor these dynamics alongside national polling trends, candidate recruitment, and fundraising, as narrow margins in a handful of states will determine overall chamber control and the number of races finishing inside five points.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$21,139終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate contests remain structurally competitive due to the midterm environment, open seats, and states that split recent presidential results. Michigan stands out as a leading battleground, with the Democratic-held seat in a state carried by the opposing party in 2024 and a tight Democratic primary underway ahead of the August 4 vote. Texas features an open Republican seat where recent polling shows the Democratic challenger narrowing the gap to single digits. South Carolina’s special primary on August 11 to replace a vacant nomination adds procedural uncertainty that could influence general-election positioning. Traders monitor these dynamics alongside national polling trends, candidate recruitment, and fundraising, as narrow margins in a handful of states will determine overall chamber control and the number of races finishing inside five points.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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