Mojtaba Khamenei's position as Iran's Supreme Leader, selected by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins the dominant market consensus. The IRGC's reported role in securing his elevation amid wartime leadership losses and external threats, combined with his family ties and familiarity with security structures, has consolidated support despite his lack of prior public office or formal religious credentials matching historical precedents. Persistent rumors of severe injuries from the same strikes, his complete absence from public view through mid-2026, and limited communications via statements have introduced uncertainty around his capacity to govern, yet official affirmations of his involvement and health have contained challenges from alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini. Trader pricing reflects continuity under current institutional dynamics while acknowledging risks from ongoing conflict or internal power shifts by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 82.3%
国家元首不在 4.4%
レザ・パフラヴィ 3.2%
アリレザ・アラフィ 1.7%
$38,820,079 Vol.
$38,820,079 Vol.
2026/12/30
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
82%
国家元首不在
4%
レザ・パフラヴィ
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
1%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
1%
アッバース・アラークチー
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 82.3%
国家元首不在 4.4%
レザ・パフラヴィ 3.2%
アリレザ・アラフィ 1.7%
$38,820,079 Vol.
$38,820,079 Vol.
2026/12/30
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$6,153,852 Vol.
82%
国家元首不在
$1,151,070 Vol.
4%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$675,483 Vol.
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$2,313,677 Vol.
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$1,124,955 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$944,950 Vol.
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$778,173 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$1,432,610 Vol.
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$1,020,448 Vol.
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$919,323 Vol.
1%
アッバース・アラークチー
$833,743 Vol.
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$438,358 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$539,067 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$3,148,205 Vol.
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$807,276 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$399,822 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$3,694,879 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$147,449 Vol.
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$215,035 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$201,356 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$837,355 Vol.
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$436,805 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$3,351,552 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$241,120 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$389,903 Vol.
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$5,193,812 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$286,913 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$254,952 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$306,911 Vol.
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$344,166 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's position as Iran's Supreme Leader, selected by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins the dominant market consensus. The IRGC's reported role in securing his elevation amid wartime leadership losses and external threats, combined with his family ties and familiarity with security structures, has consolidated support despite his lack of prior public office or formal religious credentials matching historical precedents. Persistent rumors of severe injuries from the same strikes, his complete absence from public view through mid-2026, and limited communications via statements have introduced uncertainty around his capacity to govern, yet official affirmations of his involvement and health have contained challenges from alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini. Trader pricing reflects continuity under current institutional dynamics while acknowledging risks from ongoing conflict or internal power shifts by year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$38,820,079終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's position as Iran's Supreme Leader, selected by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins the dominant market consensus. The IRGC's reported role in securing his elevation amid wartime leadership losses and external threats, combined with his family ties and familiarity with security structures, has consolidated support despite his lack of prior public office or formal religious credentials matching historical precedents. Persistent rumors of severe injuries from the same strikes, his complete absence from public view through mid-2026, and limited communications via statements have introduced uncertainty around his capacity to govern, yet official affirmations of his involvement and health have contained challenges from alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini. Trader pricing reflects continuity under current institutional dynamics while acknowledging risks from ongoing conflict or internal power shifts by year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$38,820,079終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei's position as Iran's Supreme Leader, selected by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins the dominant market consensus. The IRGC's reported role in securing his elevation amid wartime leadership losses and external threats, combined with his family ties and familiarity with security structures, has consolidated support despite his lack of prior public office or formal religious credentials matching historical precedents. Persistent rumors of severe injuries from the same strikes, his complete absence from public view through mid-2026, and limited communications via statements have introduced uncertainty around his capacity to govern, yet official affirmations of his involvement and health have contained challenges from alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini. Trader pricing reflects continuity under current institutional dynamics while acknowledging risks from ongoing conflict or internal power shifts by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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