Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities in late July 2026 have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the 68% market-implied probability for fewer than 200 transits in the week of July 27. Shipping data showed daily commodity vessel passages dropping to as low as 11 on July 26 following the blockade announcement and missile strikes, with weekly averages around 31 vessels—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated insurance premiums and security advisories from maritime centers reinforced risk aversion among tanker and container operators, while limited resumption on subsequent days has not offset the weekly shortfall. Trader consensus reflects these verified disruptions and ongoing regional tensions, with slim odds on higher ranges priced in only if threats ease rapidly before week-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日200未満 68%
200-219 24%
240隻以上 5.0%
220～239 4.9%
新規
新規
2026/08/02
200未満
68%
200-219
24%
220～239
5%
240隻以上
7%
200未満 68%
200-219 24%
240隻以上 5.0%
220～239 4.9%
新規
新規
2026/08/02
200未満
$3,994 Vol.
68%
200-219
$830 Vol.
24%
220～239
$127 Vol.
5%
240隻以上
$159 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities in late July 2026 have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the 68% market-implied probability for fewer than 200 transits in the week of July 27. Shipping data showed daily commodity vessel passages dropping to as low as 11 on July 26 following the blockade announcement and missile strikes, with weekly averages around 31 vessels—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated insurance premiums and security advisories from maritime centers reinforced risk aversion among tanker and container operators, while limited resumption on subsequent days has not offset the weekly shortfall. Trader consensus reflects these verified disruptions and ongoing regional tensions, with slim odds on higher ranges priced in only if threats ease rapidly before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
音量
$5,109終了日
2026/08/02マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities in late July 2026 have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the 68% market-implied probability for fewer than 200 transits in the week of July 27. Shipping data showed daily commodity vessel passages dropping to as low as 11 on July 26 following the blockade announcement and missile strikes, with weekly averages around 31 vessels—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated insurance premiums and security advisories from maritime centers reinforced risk aversion among tanker and container operators, while limited resumption on subsequent days has not offset the weekly shortfall. Trader consensus reflects these verified disruptions and ongoing regional tensions, with slim odds on higher ranges priced in only if threats ease rapidly before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$5,109終了日
2026/08/02マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities in late July 2026 have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the 68% market-implied probability for fewer than 200 transits in the week of July 27. Shipping data showed daily commodity vessel passages dropping to as low as 11 on July 26 following the blockade announcement and missile strikes, with weekly averages around 31 vessels—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated insurance premiums and security advisories from maritime centers reinforced risk aversion among tanker and container operators, while limited resumption on subsequent days has not offset the weekly shortfall. Trader consensus reflects these verified disruptions and ongoing regional tensions, with slim odds on higher ranges priced in only if threats ease rapidly before week-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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