Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the announcement of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in late July 2026 drove sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, pushing weekly volumes toward the sub-200 range that currently carries 68% market-implied probability. Shipping data showed daily crossings falling to just 11 commodity vessels on July 27—the lowest in months—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk insurance premiums near 0.5% of hull value, and lower tanker and container activity through the strait. Partial rebounds to 39 transits on July 28 reflected some resilience in non-sanctioned flows, yet persistent geopolitical tensions and shadow-fleet movements kept overall sentiment weighted toward suppressed volumes versus pre-disruption averages near 40 daily. Traders are monitoring upcoming data releases and any de-escalation signals for potential shifts in the narrower 200-219 band at 24%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日200未満 68%
200-219 24%
240隻以上 5.0%
220～239 4.1%
新規
新規
2026/08/02
200未満
68%
200-219
24%
220～239
4%
240隻以上
7%
200未満 68%
200-219 24%
240隻以上 5.0%
220～239 4.1%
新規
新規
2026/08/02
200未満
$4,014 Vol.
68%
200-219
$830 Vol.
24%
220～239
$147 Vol.
4%
240隻以上
$159 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the announcement of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in late July 2026 drove sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, pushing weekly volumes toward the sub-200 range that currently carries 68% market-implied probability. Shipping data showed daily crossings falling to just 11 commodity vessels on July 27—the lowest in months—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk insurance premiums near 0.5% of hull value, and lower tanker and container activity through the strait. Partial rebounds to 39 transits on July 28 reflected some resilience in non-sanctioned flows, yet persistent geopolitical tensions and shadow-fleet movements kept overall sentiment weighted toward suppressed volumes versus pre-disruption averages near 40 daily. Traders are monitoring upcoming data releases and any de-escalation signals for potential shifts in the narrower 200-219 band at 24%.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
音量
$5,149終了日
2026/08/02マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the announcement of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in late July 2026 drove sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, pushing weekly volumes toward the sub-200 range that currently carries 68% market-implied probability. Shipping data showed daily crossings falling to just 11 commodity vessels on July 27—the lowest in months—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk insurance premiums near 0.5% of hull value, and lower tanker and container activity through the strait. Partial rebounds to 39 transits on July 28 reflected some resilience in non-sanctioned flows, yet persistent geopolitical tensions and shadow-fleet movements kept overall sentiment weighted toward suppressed volumes versus pre-disruption averages near 40 daily. Traders are monitoring upcoming data releases and any de-escalation signals for potential shifts in the narrower 200-219 band at 24%.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$5,149終了日
2026/08/02マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the announcement of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in late July 2026 drove sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, pushing weekly volumes toward the sub-200 range that currently carries 68% market-implied probability. Shipping data showed daily crossings falling to just 11 commodity vessels on July 27—the lowest in months—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk insurance premiums near 0.5% of hull value, and lower tanker and container activity through the strait. Partial rebounds to 39 transits on July 28 reflected some resilience in non-sanctioned flows, yet persistent geopolitical tensions and shadow-fleet movements kept overall sentiment weighted toward suppressed volumes versus pre-disruption averages near 40 daily. Traders are monitoring upcoming data releases and any de-escalation signals for potential shifts in the narrower 200-219 band at 24%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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