Geopolitical tensions from Houthi threats and recent attacks on Saudi installations are the dominant force behind the near-even odds, with implied probabilities clustered tightly at 44-45% across the four bins. Daily commodity vessel passages through Bab el-Mandeb have fluctuated sharply in late July, ranging from lows near 5-11 to a recent peak of 39, reflecting shippers’ rapid rerouting responses to blockade risks and insurance cost spikes. This volatility, set against a longer-term baseline of roughly 31 daily transits—well below pre-2023 levels—creates substantial uncertainty for the August 3 week aggregate. Traders appear focused on whether fresh escalations or temporary pauses will push totals below 180 or above 220, with limited visibility into exact weekly resolution thresholds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日180未満 46%
220以上 45%
180～199 44%
200-219 43%
新規
新規
2026/08/09
180未満
46%
180～199
44%
200-219
43%
220以上
45%
180未満 46%
220以上 45%
180～199 44%
200-219 43%
新規
新規
2026/08/09
180未満
$0 Vol.
46%
180～199
$0 Vol.
44%
200-219
$0 Vol.
43%
220以上
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Geopolitical tensions from Houthi threats and recent attacks on Saudi installations are the dominant force behind the near-even odds, with implied probabilities clustered tightly at 44-45% across the four bins. Daily commodity vessel passages through Bab el-Mandeb have fluctuated sharply in late July, ranging from lows near 5-11 to a recent peak of 39, reflecting shippers’ rapid rerouting responses to blockade risks and insurance cost spikes. This volatility, set against a longer-term baseline of roughly 31 daily transits—well below pre-2023 levels—creates substantial uncertainty for the August 3 week aggregate. Traders appear focused on whether fresh escalations or temporary pauses will push totals below 180 or above 220, with limited visibility into exact weekly resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/09マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Geopolitical tensions from Houthi threats and recent attacks on Saudi installations are the dominant force behind the near-even odds, with implied probabilities clustered tightly at 44-45% across the four bins. Daily commodity vessel passages through Bab el-Mandeb have fluctuated sharply in late July, ranging from lows near 5-11 to a recent peak of 39, reflecting shippers’ rapid rerouting responses to blockade risks and insurance cost spikes. This volatility, set against a longer-term baseline of roughly 31 daily transits—well below pre-2023 levels—creates substantial uncertainty for the August 3 week aggregate. Traders appear focused on whether fresh escalations or temporary pauses will push totals below 180 or above 220, with limited visibility into exact weekly resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/09マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions from Houthi threats and recent attacks on Saudi installations are the dominant force behind the near-even odds, with implied probabilities clustered tightly at 44-45% across the four bins. Daily commodity vessel passages through Bab el-Mandeb have fluctuated sharply in late July, ranging from lows near 5-11 to a recent peak of 39, reflecting shippers’ rapid rerouting responses to blockade risks and insurance cost spikes. This volatility, set against a longer-term baseline of roughly 31 daily transits—well below pre-2023 levels—creates substantial uncertainty for the August 3 week aggregate. Traders appear focused on whether fresh escalations or temporary pauses will push totals below 180 or above 220, with limited visibility into exact weekly resolution thresholds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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