The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.54% as of early September 2026, reflects persistent above-target inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh. Core PCE and CPI readings have remained elevated, with headline inflation near 3.4-4.2% in recent months amid energy price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions. This environment has supported higher term premiums, driven by heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt and reduced Fed balance-sheet support. Market-implied odds for near-term rate cuts have diminished, while the upcoming September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and PPI data on September 10 represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the yield path through 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/12/30
4.50％未満
61%
4.45％未満
50%
4.40%未満
50%
4.35%未満
50%
4.30％未満
50%
4.25%未満
50%
4.20%未満
50%
4.10%未満
39%
4.00%未満
37%
$0.00 Vol.
4.50％未満
$0 Vol.
61%
4.45％未満
$0 Vol.
50%
4.40%未満
$0 Vol.
50%
4.35%未満
$0 Vol.
50%
4.30％未満
$0 Vol.
50%
4.25%未満
$0 Vol.
50%
4.20%未満
$0 Vol.
50%
4.10%未満
$0 Vol.
39%
4.00%未満
$0 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.54% as of early September 2026, reflects persistent above-target inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh. Core PCE and CPI readings have remained elevated, with headline inflation near 3.4-4.2% in recent months amid energy price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions. This environment has supported higher term premiums, driven by heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt and reduced Fed balance-sheet support. Market-implied odds for near-term rate cuts have diminished, while the upcoming September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and PPI data on September 10 represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the yield path through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.54% as of early September 2026, reflects persistent above-target inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh. Core PCE and CPI readings have remained elevated, with headline inflation near 3.4-4.2% in recent months amid energy price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions. This environment has supported higher term premiums, driven by heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt and reduced Fed balance-sheet support. Market-implied odds for near-term rate cuts have diminished, while the upcoming September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and PPI data on September 10 represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the yield path through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.54% as of early September 2026, reflects persistent above-target inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh. Core PCE and CPI readings have remained elevated, with headline inflation near 3.4-4.2% in recent months amid energy price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions. This environment has supported higher term premiums, driven by heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt and reduced Fed balance-sheet support. Market-implied odds for near-term rate cuts have diminished, while the upcoming September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and PPI data on September 10 represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the yield path through 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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