Recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, including a higher projected policy rate path and reduced easing bias, have anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.70% as of late August 2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Elevated fiscal supply, geopolitical tensions supporting a higher term premium, and resilient growth expectations have contributed to the recent sell-off and limited downside. Traders price limited scope for sharp declines before year-end given the data-dependent stance and upcoming catalysts, including Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and PCE releases. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around whether inflation moderation or policy pauses could compress yields further from current levels.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$225,409 Vol.
2026/12/30
3.9%
10%
3.8％
3%
3.7%
3%
3.6％
5%
3.5%
1%
3.0%
2%
2.0％
3%
1.0%
2%
$225,409 Vol.
3.9%
$44,198 Vol.
10%
3.8％
$41,318 Vol.
3%
3.7%
$27,425 Vol.
3%
3.6％
$5,589 Vol.
5%
3.5%
$33,070 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$917 Vol.
2%
2.0％
$564 Vol.
3%
1.0%
$40,570 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, including a higher projected policy rate path and reduced easing bias, have anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.70% as of late August 2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Elevated fiscal supply, geopolitical tensions supporting a higher term premium, and resilient growth expectations have contributed to the recent sell-off and limited downside. Traders price limited scope for sharp declines before year-end given the data-dependent stance and upcoming catalysts, including Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and PCE releases. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around whether inflation moderation or policy pauses could compress yields further from current levels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$225,409終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, including a higher projected policy rate path and reduced easing bias, have anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.70% as of late August 2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Elevated fiscal supply, geopolitical tensions supporting a higher term premium, and resilient growth expectations have contributed to the recent sell-off and limited downside. Traders price limited scope for sharp declines before year-end given the data-dependent stance and upcoming catalysts, including Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and PCE releases. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around whether inflation moderation or policy pauses could compress yields further from current levels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
音量
$225,409終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, including a higher projected policy rate path and reduced easing bias, have anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.70% as of late August 2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Elevated fiscal supply, geopolitical tensions supporting a higher term premium, and resilient growth expectations have contributed to the recent sell-off and limited downside. Traders price limited scope for sharp declines before year-end given the data-dependent stance and upcoming catalysts, including Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and PCE releases. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around whether inflation moderation or policy pauses could compress yields further from current levels.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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