Recent persistence in U.S. inflation, with July 2026 PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, continues to anchor trader focus on the 5-year Treasury yield amid the September observation window. The effective federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, yet markets price in a meaningful probability of a September FOMC hike as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes price stability. Elevated Treasury supply from fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP and public debt exceeding $40 trillion has lifted term premium, pushing the 5-year yield to approximately 4.52–4.55% in early September—up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in 2026—primarily through higher real rates. Key near-term catalysts include incoming CPI and employment data plus the mid-month FOMC decision, which could shift the market-implied path for short-term rates and influence the 5-year segment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/09/30
4.90%
5%
4.83%
37%
4.78%
50%
4.73%
50%
4.70%
50%
4.67%
50%
4.64％
50%
4.61%
52%
4.58%
64%
$0.00 Vol.
4.90%
$0 Vol.
5%
4.83%
$0 Vol.
37%
4.78%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.73%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.70%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.67%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.64％
$0 Vol.
50%
4.61%
$0 Vol.
52%
4.58%
$0 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent persistence in U.S. inflation, with July 2026 PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, continues to anchor trader focus on the 5-year Treasury yield amid the September observation window. The effective federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, yet markets price in a meaningful probability of a September FOMC hike as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes price stability. Elevated Treasury supply from fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP and public debt exceeding $40 trillion has lifted term premium, pushing the 5-year yield to approximately 4.52–4.55% in early September—up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in 2026—primarily through higher real rates. Key near-term catalysts include incoming CPI and employment data plus the mid-month FOMC decision, which could shift the market-implied path for short-term rates and influence the 5-year segment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent persistence in U.S. inflation, with July 2026 PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, continues to anchor trader focus on the 5-year Treasury yield amid the September observation window. The effective federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, yet markets price in a meaningful probability of a September FOMC hike as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes price stability. Elevated Treasury supply from fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP and public debt exceeding $40 trillion has lifted term premium, pushing the 5-year yield to approximately 4.52–4.55% in early September—up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in 2026—primarily through higher real rates. Key near-term catalysts include incoming CPI and employment data plus the mid-month FOMC decision, which could shift the market-implied path for short-term rates and influence the 5-year segment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent persistence in U.S. inflation, with July 2026 PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, continues to anchor trader focus on the 5-year Treasury yield amid the September observation window. The effective federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, yet markets price in a meaningful probability of a September FOMC hike as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes price stability. Elevated Treasury supply from fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP and public debt exceeding $40 trillion has lifted term premium, pushing the 5-year yield to approximately 4.52–4.55% in early September—up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in 2026—primarily through higher real rates. Key near-term catalysts include incoming CPI and employment data plus the mid-month FOMC decision, which could shift the market-implied path for short-term rates and influence the 5-year segment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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