Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities and oil tankers in late July 2026, including strikes near Jizan and Yanbu that slowed Bab el-Mandeb traffic, form the core driver behind trader positioning on successful targeting of shipping. These actions, tied to a declared naval blockade of Saudi exports amid the broader Iran conflict, have prompted rerouting, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and concerns over constrained Saudi crude flows. Oil price volatility has increased as markets price in potential supply disruptions, with tanker operators facing higher costs and delays through the strait. Key near-term catalysts include any Saudi naval response, further Houthi statements on fees or escalation, and shifts in regional hostilities that could alter maritime risk assessments through August.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$68,465 Vol.
2026/08/01
July 27
3%
July 28
32%
July 29
6%
7月30日
2%
7月31日
1%
8月1日
18%
8月2日
50%
8月3日
13%
8月4日
12%
8月5日
14%
8月6日
12%
8月7日
30%
8月8日
13%
8月9日
11%
8月10日
10%
8月11日
10%
8月12日
11%
8月13日
19%
8月14日
12%
8月15日
8%
8月16日
9%
8月17日
10%
8月18日
11%
8月19日
25%
8月20日
9%
8月21日
12%
8月22日
12%
8月23日
14%
8月24日
11%
8月25日
9%
8月26日
16%
8月27日
16%
8月28日
12%
8月29日
9%
8月30日
11%
8月31日
6%
$68,465 Vol.
July 27
$1,420 Vol.
3%
July 28
$3,822 Vol.
32%
July 29
$1,709 Vol.
6%
7月30日
$2,585 Vol.
2%
7月31日
$2,125 Vol.
1%
8月1日
$2,215 Vol.
18%
8月2日
$1,502 Vol.
50%
8月3日
$2,485 Vol.
13%
8月4日
$578 Vol.
12%
8月5日
$683 Vol.
14%
8月6日
$872 Vol.
12%
8月7日
$688 Vol.
30%
8月8日
$706 Vol.
13%
8月9日
$483 Vol.
11%
8月10日
$298 Vol.
10%
8月11日
$2,348 Vol.
10%
8月12日
$623 Vol.
11%
8月13日
$331 Vol.
19%
8月14日
$1,278 Vol.
12%
8月15日
$1,660 Vol.
8%
8月16日
$1,818 Vol.
9%
8月17日
$1,356 Vol.
10%
8月18日
$406 Vol.
11%
8月19日
$1,119 Vol.
25%
8月20日
$2,472 Vol.
9%
8月21日
$1,393 Vol.
12%
8月22日
$64 Vol.
12%
8月23日
$73 Vol.
14%
8月24日
$330 Vol.
11%
8月25日
$1,965 Vol.
9%
8月26日
$230 Vol.
16%
8月27日
$1,339 Vol.
16%
8月28日
$674 Vol.
12%
8月29日
$1,224 Vol.
9%
8月30日
$1,593 Vol.
11%
8月31日
$2,916 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities and oil tankers in late July 2026, including strikes near Jizan and Yanbu that slowed Bab el-Mandeb traffic, form the core driver behind trader positioning on successful targeting of shipping. These actions, tied to a declared naval blockade of Saudi exports amid the broader Iran conflict, have prompted rerouting, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and concerns over constrained Saudi crude flows. Oil price volatility has increased as markets price in potential supply disruptions, with tanker operators facing higher costs and delays through the strait. Key near-term catalysts include any Saudi naval response, further Houthi statements on fees or escalation, and shifts in regional hostilities that could alter maritime risk assessments through August.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
マーケット開始日： Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
音量
$68,465終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities and oil tankers in late July 2026, including strikes near Jizan and Yanbu that slowed Bab el-Mandeb traffic, form the core driver behind trader positioning on successful targeting of shipping. These actions, tied to a declared naval blockade of Saudi exports amid the broader Iran conflict, have prompted rerouting, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and concerns over constrained Saudi crude flows. Oil price volatility has increased as markets price in potential supply disruptions, with tanker operators facing higher costs and delays through the strait. Key near-term catalysts include any Saudi naval response, further Houthi statements on fees or escalation, and shifts in regional hostilities that could alter maritime risk assessments through August.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
音量
$68,465終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities and oil tankers in late July 2026, including strikes near Jizan and Yanbu that slowed Bab el-Mandeb traffic, form the core driver behind trader positioning on successful targeting of shipping. These actions, tied to a declared naval blockade of Saudi exports amid the broader Iran conflict, have prompted rerouting, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and concerns over constrained Saudi crude flows. Oil price volatility has increased as markets price in potential supply disruptions, with tanker operators facing higher costs and delays through the strait. Key near-term catalysts include any Saudi naval response, further Houthi statements on fees or escalation, and shifts in regional hostilities that could alter maritime risk assessments through August.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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