Recent polls place the AfD between 17% and 20% in the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting gains from its 9.1% result in 2023 amid broader voter shifts. The party benefits from dissatisfaction with the governing CDU-SPD coalition on housing affordability, migration, and public safety, themes that have lifted its support in several districts. However, the overall contest remains tightly clustered, with Die Linke, CDU, and Greens each polling in the mid-to-high teens and showing volatility across INSA, Forsa, and Infratest dimap surveys from July and August. This narrow band sustains trader focus on the 14-20% range, as AfD lacks coalition options and faces consistent opposition from other parties. Late-campaign events such as televised debates, turnout differentials, or renewed focus on local policy failures could widen or narrow its final share before voting concludes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日14〜17% 33%
17～20％ 33%
20％以上 18%
14％未満 6%
新規
新規
2026/09/20
14％未満
6%
14〜17%
33%
17～20％
33%
20％以上
18%
14〜17% 33%
17～20％ 33%
20％以上 18%
14％未満 6%
新規
新規
2026/09/20
14％未満
$363 Vol.
6%
14〜17%
$40 Vol.
33%
17～20％
$564 Vol.
33%
20％以上
$58 Vol.
18%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls place the AfD between 17% and 20% in the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting gains from its 9.1% result in 2023 amid broader voter shifts. The party benefits from dissatisfaction with the governing CDU-SPD coalition on housing affordability, migration, and public safety, themes that have lifted its support in several districts. However, the overall contest remains tightly clustered, with Die Linke, CDU, and Greens each polling in the mid-to-high teens and showing volatility across INSA, Forsa, and Infratest dimap surveys from July and August. This narrow band sustains trader focus on the 14-20% range, as AfD lacks coalition options and faces consistent opposition from other parties. Late-campaign events such as televised debates, turnout differentials, or renewed focus on local policy failures could widen or narrow its final share before voting concludes.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
音量
$1,025終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls place the AfD between 17% and 20% in the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting gains from its 9.1% result in 2023 amid broader voter shifts. The party benefits from dissatisfaction with the governing CDU-SPD coalition on housing affordability, migration, and public safety, themes that have lifted its support in several districts. However, the overall contest remains tightly clustered, with Die Linke, CDU, and Greens each polling in the mid-to-high teens and showing volatility across INSA, Forsa, and Infratest dimap surveys from July and August. This narrow band sustains trader focus on the 14-20% range, as AfD lacks coalition options and faces consistent opposition from other parties. Late-campaign events such as televised debates, turnout differentials, or renewed focus on local policy failures could widen or narrow its final share before voting concludes.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
音量
$1,025終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls place the AfD between 17% and 20% in the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting gains from its 9.1% result in 2023 amid broader voter shifts. The party benefits from dissatisfaction with the governing CDU-SPD coalition on housing affordability, migration, and public safety, themes that have lifted its support in several districts. However, the overall contest remains tightly clustered, with Die Linke, CDU, and Greens each polling in the mid-to-high teens and showing volatility across INSA, Forsa, and Infratest dimap surveys from July and August. This narrow band sustains trader focus on the 14-20% range, as AfD lacks coalition options and faces consistent opposition from other parties. Late-campaign events such as televised debates, turnout differentials, or renewed focus on local policy failures could widen or narrow its final share before voting concludes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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